Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:45 PM ET
Kroger Field · 70° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Alabama–Kentucky) | 20–38 | – | 21–45 |
| Spread | Kentucky −17.9 | Kentucky −20.5 | Kentucky −24 |
| Total | 58.3 | 54.5 | 66 |
| Kentucky win chance | 86% | – | – |
Line moved from Kentucky −19.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Alabama +20.5 Lost★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for South Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kentucky by 17.92%
South Alabama by 14+
11%
South Alabama by 1–13
27%
Kentucky by 1–13
59%
Kentucky by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Alabama | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.040 #80 | Offense EPA / play | +0.058 #36 |
| +0.204 #135 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.064 #17 |
| −5.1% #109 | Offense success rate | +4.5% #21 |
| +6.4% #116 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #54 |
| −0.057 #88 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.012 #65 |
| −0.010 #68 | Passing EPA / play | +0.152 #25 |
| +0.156 #119 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.054 #74 |
| +0.211 #122 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.154 #12 |
| −2.3 #77 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.8 #40 |
| +7.8 #111 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.0 #23 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% #105 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.7% #36 |
| +7.7% #126 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.1% #68 |
| −0.25 #76 | Points per drive | +0.21 #45 |
| +1.34 #115 | Points per drive allowed | −0.30 #20 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #84 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #25 |
| +0.17 #76 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #41 |
| −0.7% #51 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #25 |
| −0.8% #64 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.3% #44 |
| +0.7% #88 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.7% #33 |
| +0.1% #59 | Havoc created | +2.2% #18 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.048 #46 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.125 #115 |
| +0.059 #48 | Passing explosiveness | +0.077 #39 |
| −0.48 #121 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.30 #96 |
| +0.133 #125 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.209 #12 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 61% #10 | Run rate | 53% #59 |
| −14.3 #92 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +7.5 #2 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Alabama | Season to date | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 35.4 / 31.6 | Points for / against | 34.6 / 26.8 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | +7.8 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.9 |
| 69.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.6 |
South Alabama: last 3 games
| W41-36 | |
| L24-28 | |
| W39-14 |
Kentucky: last 3 games
| W31-21 | |
| L17-45 | |
| W45-13 |
