Final
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA) · 81° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ball State–Liberty) | 18–31 | – | 15–51 |
| Spread | Liberty −13.2 | Liberty −14.5 | Liberty −36 |
| Total | 49.8 | 49.5 | 66 |
| Liberty win chance | 80% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ball State +14.5 Lost★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for Ball State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Liberty by 13.24%
Ball State by 14+
16%
Ball State by 1–13
32%
Liberty by 1–13
48%
Liberty by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ball State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.157 #125 | Offense EPA / play | −0.187 #131 |
| +0.160 #122 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.130 #109 |
| −10.2% #136 | Offense success rate | −4.0% #97 |
| +7.1% #129 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.7% #83 |
| −0.035 #76 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.166 #126 |
| −0.178 #120 | Passing EPA / play | −0.200 #125 |
| +0.189 #129 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.153 #118 |
| +0.097 #89 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.084 #85 |
| −8.4 #121 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.9 #130 |
| +9.6 #126 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.2 #79 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.3% #118 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.0% #86 |
| +5.4% #113 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.5% #65 |
| −1.13 #118 | Points per drive | −1.47 #130 |
| +1.83 #130 | Points per drive allowed | +0.40 #63 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.37 #113 | Line yards per rush | −0.17 #81 |
| +0.18 #77 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.38 #113 |
| +0.9% #67 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #41 |
| +0.5% #49 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #74 |
| +4.3% #135 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.9% #107 |
| −1.5% #87 | Havoc created | −0.6% #67 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.163 #9 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.173 #130 |
| −0.077 #99 | Passing explosiveness | +0.296 #7 |
| +0.45 #13 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.19 #73 |
| −0.129 #27 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.045 #96 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #104 | Run rate | 57% #25 |
| −4.6 #36 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.6 #74 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ball State | Season to date | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.2 / 37.8 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 17.8 |
| -18.6 | Avg margin | +12.6 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Ball State: last 2 games
| W41-17 | |
| L3-56 |
Liberty: last 2 games
| W24-23 | |
| L13-20 |
