Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Dix Stadium · 68° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ball State–Kent State) | 25–26 | – | 13–26 |
| Spread | Kent State −0.8 | Kent State −2.5 | Kent State −13 |
| Total | 51.6 | 51.5 | 39 |
| Kent State win chance | 52% | – | – |
Line moved from Kent State −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ball State +2.5 Lost★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Ball State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kent State by 0.818%
Ball State by 14+
30%
Ball State by 1–13
32%
Kent State by 1–13
20%
Kent State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ball State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.146 #116 | Offense EPA / play | −0.161 #124 |
| +0.227 #137 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.155 #116 |
| −9.0% #134 | Offense success rate | −9.9% #137 |
| +8.0% #128 | Defense success rate allowed | +10.7% #138 |
| −0.040 #82 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.163 #122 |
| −0.167 #115 | Passing EPA / play | −0.145 #109 |
| +0.230 #137 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.223 #136 |
| +0.207 #120 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.107 #92 |
| −9.0 #124 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.6 #128 |
| +12.4 #132 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +15.6 #138 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.8% #124 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.9% #131 |
| +11.6% #136 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.6% #120 |
| −1.13 #119 | Points per drive | −1.20 #121 |
| +2.29 #134 | Points per drive allowed | +3.27 #138 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.42 #121 | Line yards per rush | −0.37 #113 |
| +0.32 #106 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.76 #138 |
| +0.7% #70 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.5% #117 |
| −1.0% #69 | Opponent runs stuffed | −6.2% #130 |
| +4.1% #132 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.6% #127 |
| −2.3% #105 | Havoc created | −2.5% #107 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.085 #25 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.012 #61 |
| −0.105 #107 | Passing explosiveness | +0.202 #18 |
| +0.30 #21 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.37 #108 |
| −0.126 #31 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.160 #23 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #90 | Run rate | 53% #49 |
| −4.7 #35 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.8 #20 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ball State | Season to date | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.2 / 37.8 | Points for / against | 15.0 / 31.4 |
| -18.6 | Avg margin | -16.4 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.6 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
Ball State: last 3 games
| L15-51 | |
| W41-17 | |
| L3-56 |
Kent State: last 3 games
| L3-59 | |
| W36-15 | |
| L0-57 |
