Final
Sat, Sep 26, 1:00 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium · 69° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Lindenwood–EMU) | 18–40 | – | 3–29 |
| Spread | EMU −21.9 | EMU −24.5 | EMU −26 |
| Total | 57.2 | 53.5 | 32 |
| Eastern Michigan win chance | 91% | – | – |
Line moved from EMU −25.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Lindenwood +24.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Lindenwood (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around EMU by 21.91%
Lindenwood by 14+
7%
Lindenwood by 1–13
22%
Eastern Michigan by 1–13
69%
Eastern Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Lindenwood | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.257 | Offense EPA / play | −0.176 #132 |
| +0.319 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.156 #128 |
| −13.5% | Offense success rate | −5.7% #123 |
| +13.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +6.1% #127 |
| −0.184 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.073 #115 |
| −0.242 | Passing EPA / play | −0.229 #124 |
| +0.349 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.134 #122 |
| +0.327 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.185 #115 |
| −16.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.3 #133 |
| +18.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.6 #131 |
| Situational | ||
| −14.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.9% #127 |
| +7.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +7.5% #132 |
| −2.09 | Points per drive | −1.27 #127 |
| +2.44 | Points per drive allowed | +1.24 #128 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.74 | Line yards per rush | −0.14 #115 |
| +1.25 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.06 #75 |
| +6.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.7% #75 |
| −11.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #83 |
| +6.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.0% #126 |
| −6.6% | Havoc created | −1.2% #83 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.072 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.040 #57 |
| −0.012 | Passing explosiveness | −0.120 #131 |
| −0.58 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.30 #93 |
| +0.016 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.047 #85 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% | Run rate | 50% #121 |
| −18.1 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.4 #53 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Lindenwood | Season to date | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-3 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-4 |
| 8.5 / 38.5 | Points for / against | 22.2 / 25.0 |
| -30.0 | Avg margin | -2.8 |
| -9.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.0 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.5 |
Lindenwood: last 1 games
| L14-48 |
Eastern Michigan: last 4 games
| L10-54 | |
| L7-35 | |
| L21-27 | |
| W28-17 |
