Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 64° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Akron–CMU) | 23–24 | – | 17–41 |
| Spread | CMU −0.6 | CMU −6.5 | CMU −24 |
| Total | 46.8 | 47.5 | 58 |
| Central Michigan win chance | 52% | – | – |
Line moved from CMU −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Akron +6.5 Lost★ Under 47.5 Lost
Spread: 5.9 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around CMU by 0.618%
Akron by 14+
31%
Akron by 1–13
32%
Central Michigan by 1–13
20%
Central Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Akron | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.167 #127 | Offense EPA / play | −0.137 #118 |
| +0.187 #133 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.125 #110 |
| −2.8% #97 | Offense success rate | −7.4% #132 |
| +5.0% #116 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.6% #130 |
| −0.091 #117 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.034 #68 |
| −0.208 #122 | Passing EPA / play | −0.360 #137 |
| +0.022 #69 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.111 #109 |
| +0.318 #133 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.041 #69 |
| −9.3 #122 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −12.5 #134 |
| +10.6 #132 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #95 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.9% #98 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.2% #115 |
| +5.9% #127 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.8% #131 |
| −0.99 #111 | Points per drive | −1.36 #127 |
| +1.17 #127 | Points per drive allowed | +1.14 #125 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #65 | Line yards per rush | +0.06 #79 |
| +0.07 #79 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.44 #128 |
| −1.9% #67 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.2% #64 |
| −0.0% #71 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.1% #111 |
| +2.2% #130 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.5% #66 |
| −1.4% #91 | Havoc created | −1.1% #85 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.172 #131 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.147 #18 |
| −0.018 #113 | Passing explosiveness | −0.254 #138 |
| −0.41 #109 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.36 #101 |
| +0.258 #133 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.173 #12 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #126 | Run rate | 70% #6 |
| −9.7 #72 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −4.9 #35 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Akron | Season to date | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.0 / 33.6 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 25.4 |
| -14.6 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| -5.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 51.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 46.6 |
Akron: last 4 games
| L10-38 | |
| L7-41 | |
| W45-10 | |
| L16-38 |
Central Michigan: last 4 games
| L3-52 | |
| W24-10 | |
| W13-10 | |
| L7-38 |
