Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 69° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EMU–Massachusetts) | 24–26 | – | 38–14 |
| Spread | Massachusetts −2.4 | Massachusetts −5.5 | EMU −24 |
| Total | 49.6 | 49.5 | 52 |
| Massachusetts win chance | 56% | – | – |
Line moved from Massachusetts −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ EMU +5.5 Won★ Over 49.5 Won
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Eastern Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Massachusetts by 2.415%
Eastern Michigan by 14+
29%
Eastern Michigan by 1–13
33%
Massachusetts by 1–13
23%
Massachusetts by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| EMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.169 #128 | Offense EPA / play | −0.056 #89 |
| +0.150 #121 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.024 #69 |
| −6.3% #128 | Offense success rate | −4.9% #114 |
| +4.4% #109 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #108 |
| −0.093 #118 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.035 #67 |
| −0.205 #121 | Passing EPA / play | −0.060 #80 |
| +0.122 #114 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.055 #33 |
| +0.160 #108 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.088 #85 |
| −11.3 #132 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.5 #104 |
| +9.0 #126 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.8 #104 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.8% #110 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.3% #107 |
| +5.0% #115 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.6% #87 |
| −1.32 #122 | Points per drive | −0.56 #96 |
| +1.16 #126 | Points per drive allowed | +1.00 #120 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.29 #125 | Line yards per rush | −0.05 #98 |
| +0.07 #82 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.24 #109 |
| +0.5% #105 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.2% #95 |
| −1.4% #97 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.1% #120 |
| +1.9% #127 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #81 |
| −1.6% #95 | Havoc created | −1.8% #99 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.037 #53 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.092 #36 |
| −0.043 #124 | Passing explosiveness | +0.167 #48 |
| −0.45 #115 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.39 #106 |
| +0.085 #100 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.036 #85 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #123 | Run rate | 60% #29 |
| −14.2 #115 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −28.3 #138 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| EMU | Season to date | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 22.2 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 31.8 / 17.8 |
| -2.8 | Avg margin | +14.0 |
| -1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.8 |
| 60.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.0 |
Eastern Michigan: last 5 games
| W29-3 | |
| L10-54 | |
| L7-35 | |
| L21-27 | |
| W28-17 |
Massachusetts: last 4 games
| W35-6 | |
| W36-14 | |
| W37-10 | |
| W37-21 |
