Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Yager Stadium · 56° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Akron–Miami (OH)) | 23–29 | – |
| Spread | Miami (OH) −5.5 | No line |
| Total | 52.4 | n/a |
| Miami (OH) win chance | 63% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami (OH) by 5.511%
Akron by 14+
25%
Akron by 1–13
34%
Miami (OH) by 1–13
30%
Miami (OH) by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Akron | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.156 #121 | Offense EPA / play | −0.011 #68 |
| +0.231 #135 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.122 #102 |
| −4.8% #103 | Offense success rate | −3.9% #96 |
| +7.9% #124 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.6% #116 |
| −0.112 #109 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.118 #111 |
| −0.182 #115 | Passing EPA / play | +0.161 #22 |
| +0.093 #92 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.116 #103 |
| +0.286 #132 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.153 #105 |
| −9.8 #124 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.3 #92 |
| +12.6 #132 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.1 #115 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.2% #110 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.7% #71 |
| +6.7% #117 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.5% #109 |
| −1.17 #119 | Points per drive | −0.20 #76 |
| +1.70 #126 | Points per drive allowed | +1.33 #111 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.04 #58 | Line yards per rush | −0.30 #103 |
| +0.35 #110 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #61 |
| +0.6% #68 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.9% #46 |
| −2.4% #92 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.3% #53 |
| +3.6% #129 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #89 |
| −2.1% #101 | Havoc created | −3.2% #116 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.129 #117 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.119 #113 |
| −0.109 #116 | Passing explosiveness | +0.236 #8 |
| −0.38 #104 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #106 |
| +0.280 #137 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.064 #58 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #117 | Run rate | 49% #104 |
| −10.4 #86 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.7 #101 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Akron | Season to date | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 19.0 / 33.6 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 29.2 |
| -14.6 | Avg margin | -2.4 |
| -5.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.9 |
| 51.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.0 |
Akron: last 5 games
| L17-41 | |
| L10-38 | |
| L7-41 | |
| W45-10 | |
| L16-38 |
Miami (OH): last 5 games
| L20-24 | |
| W24-21 | |
| L31-35 | |
| W45-7 | |
| L14-59 |
