Final
Sat, Oct 3, 8:00 PM ET
Cajun Field · 79° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arkansas State–Louisiana) | 21–28 | – | 20–23 |
| Spread | Louisiana −6.7 | Louisiana −4.5 | Louisiana −3 |
| Total | 49.5 | 49.5 | 43 |
| Louisiana win chance | 67% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisiana −4 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana −4.5 Lost
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana by 6.710%
Arkansas State by 14+
24%
Arkansas State by 1–13
34%
Louisiana by 1–13
32%
Louisiana by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arkansas State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.086 #101 | Offense EPA / play | −0.088 #102 |
| +0.120 #105 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.080 #21 |
| +0.6% #60 | Offense success rate | −5.7% #121 |
| +4.9% #114 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.3% #75 |
| +0.047 #63 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.065 #55 |
| −0.166 #113 | Passing EPA / play | −0.134 #100 |
| −0.008 #56 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.196 #4 |
| +0.294 #132 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.076 #79 |
| −5.4 #94 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.5 #78 |
| +3.4 #89 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.1 #75 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.2% #93 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.0% #113 |
| +5.0% #116 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.6% #49 |
| −0.21 #75 | Points per drive | −0.63 #100 |
| +0.38 #91 | Points per drive allowed | −0.03 #60 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.06 #78 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #91 |
| +0.52 #135 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.02 #66 |
| −1.7% #72 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.8% #71 |
| −6.6% #136 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.8% #24 |
| −0.8% #83 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.1% #101 |
| −3.0% #119 | Havoc created | +0.7% #45 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.035 #55 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.218 #4 |
| −0.042 #123 | Passing explosiveness | −0.080 #130 |
| −0.47 #116 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.05 #60 |
| +0.200 #128 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.133 #20 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #94 | Run rate | 64% #10 |
| −10.6 #84 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.4 #98 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arkansas State | Season to date | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-1-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 24.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 29.2 / 19.4 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | +9.8 |
| -0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.6 |
| 54.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.2 |
Arkansas State: last 4 games
| W17-14 | |
| L7-31 | |
| W52-7 | |
| L24-42 |
