Beaver projection
Thu, Oct 15, 7:30 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium · 61° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (GASO–Old Dominion) | 26–20 | – |
| Spread | GASO −6.2 | No line |
| Total | 46.7 | n/a |
| Old Dominion win chance | 35% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around GASO by 6.231%
Georgia Southern by 14+
34%
Georgia Southern by 1–13
25%
Old Dominion by 1–13
10%
Old Dominion by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| GASO | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.004 #63 | Offense EPA / play | −0.226 #134 |
| +0.084 #93 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.026 #47 |
| −0.1% #71 | Offense success rate | −10.1% #138 |
| +1.1% #74 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.0% #40 |
| −0.028 #99 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.186 #135 |
| +0.007 #58 | Passing EPA / play | −0.333 #136 |
| +0.053 #87 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.080 #24 |
| +0.151 #103 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.059 #73 |
| −3.4 #84 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.0 #125 |
| +3.6 #88 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.5 #105 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.2% #61 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.9% #99 |
| +0.8% #85 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.8% #56 |
| −0.46 #89 | Points per drive | −1.41 #130 |
| +0.47 #99 | Points per drive allowed | +0.37 #93 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.12 #65 | Line yards per rush | −1.00 #138 |
| +0.07 #78 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.09 #53 |
| −2.3% #65 | Runs stuffed at the line | +8.9% #138 |
| +0.0% #71 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.6% #61 |
| −0.1% #102 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.9% #138 |
| −0.4% #66 | Havoc created | −0.0% #59 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.027 #87 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.129 #24 |
| −0.043 #122 | Passing explosiveness | +0.312 #14 |
| −0.11 #67 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.05 #44 |
| −0.165 #10 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.075 #97 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #132 | Run rate | 60% #28 |
| −8.5 #74 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.1 #62 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| GASO | Season to date | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 0-5 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.8 / 23.8 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 32.4 |
| +1.0 | Avg margin | -12.6 |
| +3.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -16.2 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.4 |
Georgia Southern: last 5 games
| W31-24 | |
| L28-42 | |
| L27-31 | |
| L7-22 | |
| W31-0 |
Old Dominion: last 5 games
| L10-42 | |
| L20-46 | |
| L17-20 | |
| L21-44 | |
| W31-10 |
