Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 5:00 PM ET
Cajun Field · 71° · wind 17 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Troy–Louisiana) | 20–29 | – |
| Spread | Louisiana −8.6 | No line |
| Total | 49.1 | n/a |
| Louisiana win chance | 71% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana by 8.68%
Troy by 14+
22%
Troy by 1–13
34%
Louisiana by 1–13
37%
Louisiana by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Troy | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.050 #83 | Offense EPA / play | −0.071 #96 |
| +0.083 #92 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.048 #38 |
| −1.9% #89 | Offense success rate | −3.9% #104 |
| +2.6% #89 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.0% #73 |
| +0.015 #80 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.067 #53 |
| −0.076 #82 | Passing EPA / play | −0.117 #94 |
| +0.058 #88 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.175 #7 |
| +0.071 #81 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.099 #87 |
| −4.5 #89 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.3 #87 |
| +4.7 #94 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.6 #80 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.7% #105 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.0% #92 |
| +0.3% #79 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.3% #78 |
| −0.96 #108 | Points per drive | −0.76 #98 |
| +0.30 #87 | Points per drive allowed | +0.12 #69 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.02 #93 | Line yards per rush | +0.03 #84 |
| −0.08 #55 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.00 #68 |
| +0.4% #101 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.3% #80 |
| +2.4% #37 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.8% #22 |
| +0.2% #108 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #96 |
| −2.5% #111 | Havoc created | +0.7% #43 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.006 #78 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.147 #18 |
| +0.176 #39 | Passing explosiveness | −0.117 #132 |
| +0.02 #50 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.19 #78 |
| +0.067 #95 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.096 #31 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #46 | Run rate | 64% #10 |
| −12.4 #103 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.5 #112 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Troy | Season to date | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-1-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 28.0 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 29.2 / 19.4 |
| +4.0 | Avg margin | +9.8 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.6 |
| 74.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.2 |
Troy: last 5 games
| W55-34 | |
| L10-21 | |
| L17-27 | |
| W34-17 | |
| W24-21 |
Louisiana: last 5 games
| W23-20 | |
| W34-7 | |
| W21-14 | |
| L30-49 | |
| W38-7 |
