Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 70° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Mercyhurst–WKU) | 13–47 | – | 7–52 |
| Spread | WKU −33.7 | WKU −39.5 | WKU −45 |
| Total | 60.2 | 58.5 | 59 |
| Western Kentucky win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from WKU −38.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Mercyhurst +39.5 Lost★ Over 58.5 Won
Spread: 5.8 pts better than Vegas for Mercyhurst (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WKU by 33.70%
Mercyhurst by 14+
2%
Mercyhurst by 1–13
9%
Western Kentucky by 1–13
89%
Western Kentucky by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Mercyhurst | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.357 | Offense EPA / play | −0.175 #127 |
| +0.257 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.263 #138 |
| −15.5% | Offense success rate | −4.5% #103 |
| +14.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +6.9% #120 |
| −0.299 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.210 #133 |
| −0.431 | Passing EPA / play | −0.201 #122 |
| +0.292 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.196 #133 |
| +0.169 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.217 #125 |
| −18.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.6 #106 |
| +25.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +13.2 #135 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.5% #75 |
| +14.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +10.7% #134 |
| −2.08 | Points per drive | −0.65 #93 |
| +3.89 | Points per drive allowed | +2.14 #133 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.24 | Line yards per rush | −0.42 #120 |
| +1.03 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.53 #129 |
| +13.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | +6.9% #129 |
| −5.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.5% #126 |
| +8.8% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #79 |
| −5.0% | Havoc created | −3.3% #121 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.146 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.143 #121 |
| +0.160 | Passing explosiveness | +0.029 #66 |
| −0.38 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #75 |
| +0.347 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.187 #131 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% | Run rate | 48% #107 |
| −7.3 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +8.4 #1 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Mercyhurst | Season to date | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-4 |
| 0-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 9.3 / 57.7 | Points for / against | 19.8 / 39.6 |
| -48.3 | Avg margin | -19.8 |
| -11.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -10.7 |
| 39.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
Mercyhurst: last 2 games
| L7-70 | |
| L14-51 |
