Beaver projection
Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA) · 68° · wind 7 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Sam Houston–Liberty) | 20–32 | 14–35 | – |
| Spread | Liberty −12.0 | Liberty −21.1 | Liberty −13.5 |
| Total | 52.5 | 48.8 | 52.5 |
| Liberty win chance | 77% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Sam Houston +13.5
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Liberty −13.5 ☆ Under 52.5
Spread: 7.6 pts better than Vegas for Liberty. Total: 3.7 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Liberty by 12.05%
Sam Houston by 14+
18%
Sam Houston by 1–13
32%
Liberty by 1–13
45%
Liberty by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Sam Houston | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.089 #100 | Offense EPA / play | −0.048 #80 |
| +0.107 #93 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.055 #73 |
| −0.9% #70 | Offense success rate | +0.9% #52 |
| +5.1% #98 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.1% #63 |
| −0.157 #119 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.045 #81 |
| −0.059 #84 | Passing EPA / play | −0.013 #66 |
| +0.226 #136 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.076 #86 |
| −0.032 #39 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.061 #76 |
| −5.5 #94 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #82 |
| +7.4 #109 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.8 #61 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.8% #72 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.8% #46 |
| +6.4% #114 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.5% #80 |
| −0.91 #102 | Points per drive | −0.57 #93 |
| +1.10 #103 | Points per drive allowed | +0.56 #70 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.68 #132 | Line yards per rush | +0.04 #45 |
| +0.38 #115 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.31 #104 |
| +8.5% #134 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.0% #19 |
| −1.4% #77 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #63 |
| +4.3% #134 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #79 |
| +1.6% #28 | Havoc created | −1.3% #82 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.095 #105 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.191 #128 |
| −0.036 #89 | Passing explosiveness | +0.212 #12 |
| −0.50 #117 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.05 #61 |
| −0.165 #21 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.168 #130 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 42% #133 | Run rate | 61% #9 |
| −12.8 #102 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.8 #110 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Sam Houston | Season to date | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 27.8 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 17.8 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | +12.6 |
| +14.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.3 |
| 57.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Sam Houston: last 4 games
| L14-49 | |
| W59-0 | |
| L17-23 | |
| L21-24 |
Liberty: last 5 games
| W30-14 | |
| W34-17 | |
| W51-15 | |
| W24-23 | |
| L13-20 |
