Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium · 70° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MTSU–JXST) | 22–31 | – | 13–23 |
| Spread | JXST −8.4 | JXST −7 | JXST −10 |
| Total | 52.8 | 50.5 | 36 |
| Jacksonville State win chance | 70% | – | – |
Line moved from JXST −9.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ JXST −7 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for Jacksonville State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around JXST by 8.48%
Middle Tennessee by 14+
22%
Middle Tennessee by 1–13
34%
Jacksonville State by 1–13
36%
Jacksonville State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| MTSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.114 #107 | Offense EPA / play | −0.034 #78 |
| +0.154 #115 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.075 #83 |
| −6.7% #124 | Offense success rate | −1.6% #74 |
| +6.4% #115 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.1% #112 |
| −0.040 #83 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.079 #97 |
| −0.198 #121 | Passing EPA / play | +0.032 #45 |
| +0.061 #77 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.182 #127 |
| +0.238 #129 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.072 #30 |
| −8.0 #113 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.4 #93 |
| +9.6 #123 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.7 #105 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.9% #93 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.8% #65 |
| +2.6% #84 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.8% #86 |
| −1.24 #123 | Points per drive | −0.20 #72 |
| +1.46 #120 | Points per drive allowed | +1.33 #112 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #42 | Line yards per rush | −0.39 #117 |
| +0.20 #80 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.26 #95 |
| −0.9% #46 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.6% #118 |
| −1.2% #76 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.2% #101 |
| −0.6% #57 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.0% #66 |
| −3.7% #130 | Havoc created | −2.2% #104 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.043 #49 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.033 #79 |
| −0.140 #119 | Passing explosiveness | −0.028 #85 |
| −0.20 #82 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.37 #107 |
| +0.014 #87 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.142 #27 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 42% #132 | Run rate | 56% #28 |
| −24.7 #135 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.9 #103 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| MTSU | Season to date | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 20.8 / 28.0 | Points for / against | 27.4 / 21.8 |
| -7.2 | Avg margin | +5.6 |
| -3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.6 |
| 55.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Middle Tennessee: last 3 games
| W27-20 | |
| L26-28 | |
| W38-14 |
Jacksonville State: last 4 games
| W31-27 | |
| L27-29 | |
| W49-7 | |
| L7-33 |
