Final
Thu, Oct 1, 8:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium · 71° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WKU–NMSU) | 29–25 | – | 13–34 |
| Spread | WKU −3.9 | NMSU −1.5 | NMSU −21 |
| Total | 54.8 | 55.5 | 47 |
| New Mexico State win chance | 40% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WKU +1.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Won
Spread: 5.4 pts better than Vegas for Western Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WKU by 3.926%
Western Kentucky by 14+
33%
Western Kentucky by 1–13
27%
New Mexico State by 1–13
13%
New Mexico State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WKU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.130 #114 | Offense EPA / play | −0.173 #125 |
| +0.238 #137 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.186 #124 |
| −4.3% #102 | Offense success rate | −6.7% #118 |
| +6.9% #118 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.7% #125 |
| −0.191 #128 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.190 #127 |
| −0.110 #95 | Passing EPA / play | −0.124 #100 |
| +0.186 #130 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.091 #92 |
| +0.199 #120 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.232 #125 |
| −6.5 #102 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.8 #119 |
| +11.5 #129 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.6 #127 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.8% #64 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.0% #76 |
| +10.1% #134 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.1% #103 |
| −0.24 #76 | Points per drive | −1.23 #118 |
| +2.16 #134 | Points per drive allowed | +1.60 #123 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.55 #127 | Line yards per rush | −0.44 #115 |
| +0.49 #121 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #113 |
| +7.9% #131 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.5% #93 |
| −4.4% #113 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.1% #58 |
| +0.5% #79 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.7% #127 |
| −3.8% #128 | Havoc created | −5.1% #137 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.136 #120 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.040 #88 |
| +0.053 #53 | Passing explosiveness | +0.067 #48 |
| −0.51 #123 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #89 |
| +0.065 #105 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.039 #68 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #110 | Run rate | 45% #123 |
| −5.2 #32 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.6 #116 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WKU | Season to date | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-4 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.8 / 39.6 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 26.4 |
| -19.8 | Avg margin | +1.4 |
| -10.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.0 |
Western Kentucky: last 4 games
| W52-7 | |
| L0-38 | |
| L20-70 | |
| L14-49 |
New Mexico State: last 4 games
| L18-42 | |
| L19-29 | |
| W51-14 | |
| L17-34 |
