Beaver projection
Tue, Oct 13, 8:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium · 69° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (FIU–JXST) | 20–26 | – |
| Spread | JXST −6.3 | No line |
| Total | 46.1 | n/a |
| Jacksonville State win chance | 66% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around JXST by 6.310%
Florida International by 14+
25%
Florida International by 1–13
34%
Jacksonville State by 1–13
31%
Jacksonville State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| FIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.214 #132 | Offense EPA / play | −0.043 #79 |
| +0.071 #76 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.095 #88 |
| −7.4% #126 | Offense success rate | −0.6% #65 |
| +1.0% #59 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.4% #114 |
| −0.226 #134 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.048 #83 |
| −0.236 #125 | Passing EPA / play | −0.019 #69 |
| +0.021 #53 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.170 #123 |
| +0.085 #85 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.007 #45 |
| −14.2 #134 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.8 #102 |
| +1.5 #67 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.6 #100 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.8% #96 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.7% #61 |
| −1.4% #41 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.3% #72 |
| −1.83 #136 | Points per drive | −0.48 #89 |
| +0.47 #63 | Points per drive allowed | +1.43 #113 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.57 #127 | Line yards per rush | −0.24 #97 |
| −0.05 #44 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.22 #86 |
| +3.7% #106 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #97 |
| −2.0% #87 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.4% #105 |
| +1.5% #105 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #57 |
| −1.1% #75 | Havoc created | −2.0% #99 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.239 #135 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.003 #70 |
| −0.083 #107 | Passing explosiveness | −0.058 #97 |
| −0.96 #138 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.23 #85 |
| −0.038 #66 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.085 #50 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #98 | Run rate | 55% #35 |
| −20.7 #136 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.0 #125 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| FIU | Season to date | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 18.0 / 14.5 | Points for / against | 27.4 / 21.8 |
| +3.5 | Avg margin | +5.6 |
| -3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.6 |
| 73.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Florida International: last 4 games
| W20-3 | |
| L10-16 | |
| W33-20 | |
| L9-19 |
Jacksonville State: last 5 games
| W23-13 | |
| W31-27 | |
| L27-29 | |
| W49-7 | |
| L7-33 |
