Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium · 76° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UL Monroe–South Alabama) | 20–34 | – | 35–52 |
| Spread | South Alabama −14.6 | South Alabama −12.5 | South Alabama −17 |
| Total | 54.3 | 57.5 | 87 |
| South Alabama win chance | 82% | – | – |
Line moved from South Alabama −14.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Alabama −12.5 Won★ Under 57.5 Lost
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for South Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.2 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Alabama by 14.64%
UL Monroe by 14+
14%
UL Monroe by 1–13
30%
South Alabama by 1–13
52%
South Alabama by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UL Monroe | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.228 #135 | Offense EPA / play | −0.027 #76 |
| +0.214 #137 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.186 #132 |
| −5.7% #122 | Offense success rate | −3.9% #105 |
| +8.8% #138 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.5% #129 |
| −0.020 #90 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.020 #77 |
| −0.348 #135 | Passing EPA / play | −0.038 #72 |
| +0.236 #138 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.214 #135 |
| +0.155 #105 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.113 #90 |
| −11.3 #131 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.6 #68 |
| +15.3 #137 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.8 #123 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.7% #109 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.7% #89 |
| +8.9% #136 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.4% #130 |
| −1.28 #121 | Points per drive | −0.25 #78 |
| +2.18 #136 | Points per drive allowed | +0.85 #114 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.17 #114 | Line yards per rush | +0.05 #84 |
| +0.52 #136 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.24 #106 |
| +0.7% #108 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.1% #27 |
| −3.8% #119 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.1% #89 |
| +1.4% #122 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #62 |
| −4.1% #131 | Havoc created | −0.3% #62 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.038 #97 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.113 #31 |
| +0.051 #89 | Passing explosiveness | +0.216 #34 |
| −0.20 #80 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.57 #127 |
| −0.043 #48 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.042 #87 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #53 | Run rate | 63% #13 |
| −9.7 #77 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.3 #70 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UL Monroe | Season to date | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 24.0 / 44.6 | Points for / against | 35.4 / 31.6 |
| -20.6 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| -10.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 69.2 |
UL Monroe: last 4 games
| L17-45 | |
| L35-38 | |
| L20-26 | |
| L13-62 |
South Alabama: last 4 games
| L21-45 | |
| W41-36 | |
| L24-28 | |
| W39-14 |
