Final
Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 90° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTSA–Texas) | 16–42 | – | 6–30 |
| Spread | Texas −25.4 | Texas −29.5 | Texas −24 |
| Total | 57.8 | 58.5 | 36 |
| Texas win chance | 94% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTSA +29.5 Won★ Under 58.5 Won
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas by 25.41%
UTSA by 14+
5%
UTSA by 1–13
18%
Texas by 1–13
76%
Texas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UTSA | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.029 #47 | Offense EPA / play | +0.141 #15 |
| −0.025 #40 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.109 #9 |
| +3.8% #29 | Offense success rate | +7.1% #11 |
| +1.7% #77 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.4% #12 |
| +0.125 #27 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.071 #42 |
| −0.068 #84 | Passing EPA / play | +0.214 #10 |
| +0.060 #87 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.154 #8 |
| −0.043 #36 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.066 #27 |
| +1.5 #44 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +11.0 #9 |
| +1.3 #70 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.7 #3 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.9% #118 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +8.4% #11 |
| +1.4% #79 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.3% #67 |
| −0.05 #56 | Points per drive | +1.85 #8 |
| +0.07 #70 | Points per drive allowed | −1.33 #3 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.19 #49 | Line yards per rush | +0.12 #66 |
| +0.25 #111 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.24 #31 |
| −3.5% #44 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.0% #111 |
| −3.1% #115 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.7% #23 |
| −3.0% #34 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #80 |
| −1.7% #95 | Havoc created | +2.2% #20 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.032 #62 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.028 #88 |
| −0.094 #127 | Passing explosiveness | +0.153 #51 |
| +0.45 #15 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.08 #39 |
| −0.194 #10 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.087 #103 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #83 | Run rate | 53% #95 |
| −15.8 #92 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +7.7 #5 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UTSA | Season to date | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 31.4 / 26.2 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 13.2 |
| +5.2 | Avg margin | +20.0 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.2 |
| 61.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
UTSA: last 2 games
| W31-26 | |
| W45-16 |
Texas: last 2 games
| W24-23 | |
| W59-7 |
