Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium · 62° · wind 17 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ole Miss–Vanderbilt) | 30–23 | 35–25 | – |
| Spread | Ole Miss −6.9 | Ole Miss −10.0 | Ole Miss −10 |
| Total | 52.9 | 60.2 | 56.5 |
| Vanderbilt win chance | 33% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Vanderbilt +10 ★ Under 56.5
Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Vanderbilt (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Over 56.5
Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ole Miss by 6.933%
Ole Miss by 14+
34%
Ole Miss by 1–13
24%
Vanderbilt by 1–13
10%
Vanderbilt by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ole Miss | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.180 #9 | Offense EPA / play | +0.006 #63 |
| +0.048 #75 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.043 #40 |
| +9.7% #6 | Offense success rate | −0.1% #72 |
| +1.9% #82 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.2% #37 |
| +0.146 #19 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.160 #13 |
| +0.210 #9 | Passing EPA / play | −0.021 #64 |
| +0.089 #102 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.039 #37 |
| +0.014 #60 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #42 |
| +7.3 #19 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.3 #65 |
| −1.3 #50 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.6 #43 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.1% #28 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.3% #71 |
| +0.0% #73 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.3% #31 |
| +0.74 #23 | Points per drive | −0.16 #75 |
| −0.49 #33 | Points per drive allowed | −0.53 #30 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.07 #77 | Line yards per rush | +0.38 #24 |
| −0.00 #66 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.20 #35 |
| −1.2% #81 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.4% #21 |
| +1.8% #44 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #79 |
| −4.3% #17 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.4% #29 |
| −1.7% #94 | Havoc created | −1.3% #85 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.176 #11 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.138 #20 |
| +0.014 #107 | Passing explosiveness | +0.054 #94 |
| −0.20 #78 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.59 #125 |
| −0.061 #42 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.131 #113 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #120 | Run rate | 56% #58 |
| +2.6 #12 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.8 #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ole Miss | Season to date | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 35.5 / 30.8 | Points for / against | 25.4 / 25.0 |
| +4.8 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| -6.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.1 |
| 64.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.4 |
Ole Miss: last 4 games
| L28-52 | |
| W32-24 | |
| W41-9 | |
| W41-38 |
Vanderbilt: last 5 games
| L14-38 | |
| L15-21 | |
| W35-31 | |
| W35-26 | |
| W28-9 |
