Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 9:30 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium · 85° · wind 12 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Hawai'i–Arizona State) | 16–39 | 16–36 | – |
| Spread | Arizona State −23.3 | Arizona State −19.5 | Arizona State −20.5 |
| Total | 55.6 | 52.2 | 50.5 |
| Arizona State win chance | 93% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arizona State −20.5 ★ Over 50.5
Spread: 2.8 pts better than Vegas for Arizona State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.1 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Hawai'i +20.5 ☆ Over 50.5
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Hawai'i. Total: 1.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona State by 23.31%
Hawai'i by 14+
6%
Hawai'i by 1–13
21%
Arizona State by 1–13
72%
Arizona State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Hawai'i | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.147 #117 | Offense EPA / play | −0.059 #85 |
| +0.211 #133 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.036 #64 |
| −6.7% #121 | Offense success rate | +1.0% #51 |
| +9.1% #133 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.0% #38 |
| −0.199 #128 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.055 #84 |
| −0.130 #104 | Passing EPA / play | −0.058 #83 |
| +0.219 #135 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.039 #62 |
| +0.112 #90 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.043 #69 |
| −11.2 #131 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.5 #42 |
| +7.6 #110 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.3 #88 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.3% #111 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.6% #19 |
| +4.2% #93 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.9% #37 |
| −1.53 #131 | Points per drive | +0.35 #45 |
| +1.19 #106 | Points per drive allowed | +0.54 #68 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.26 #98 | Line yards per rush | +0.01 #49 |
| +0.49 #123 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.03 #54 |
| +2.9% #97 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.6% #50 |
| −6.6% #134 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.3% #73 |
| +2.5% #116 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.1% #63 |
| −3.6% #122 | Havoc created | −0.2% #61 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.101 #107 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.213 #133 |
| −0.111 #117 | Passing explosiveness | +0.000 #73 |
| −0.13 #72 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.07 #43 |
| −0.132 #29 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.048 #98 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 37% #138 | Run rate | 51% #76 |
| −14.5 #109 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.7 #38 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Hawai'i | Season to date | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 17.6 / 24.8 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 31.8 |
| -7.2 | Avg margin | +1.5 |
| -8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.8 |
| 72.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.5 |
Hawai'i: last 5 games
| L16-20 | |
| L10-27 | |
| W29-19 | |
| L6-21 | |
| L27-37 |
Arizona State: last 4 games
| L19-55 | |
| W24-17 | |
| L20-48 | |
| W70-7 |
