Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
TDECU Stadium · 64° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Oklahoma State–Houston) | 21–36 | – |
| Spread | Houston −15.4 | Houston −3.5 |
| Total | 56.7 | 57.5 |
| Houston win chance | 83% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Houston −3.5 ★ Under 57.5
Spread: 11.9 pts better than Vegas for Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Houston by 15.43%
Oklahoma State by 14+
14%
Oklahoma State by 1–13
30%
Houston by 1–13
54%
Houston by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oklahoma State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.028 #75 | Offense EPA / play | +0.149 #16 |
| −0.052 #35 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.011 #61 |
| +2.7% #41 | Offense success rate | +9.9% #5 |
| −1.3% #50 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.9% #56 |
| −0.025 #97 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.105 #38 |
| +0.052 #42 | Passing EPA / play | +0.226 #8 |
| −0.020 #46 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.046 #35 |
| −0.216 #7 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.063 #78 |
| +1.0 #58 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +7.5 #18 |
| −1.9 #47 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.0 #46 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.8% #91 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +13.3% #2 |
| −5.8% #12 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.2% #76 |
| +0.31 #49 | Points per drive | +1.30 #13 |
| −0.29 #42 | Points per drive allowed | −0.10 #55 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #66 | Line yards per rush | +0.48 #15 |
| +0.04 #73 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.27 #25 |
| −1.7% #72 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.3% #23 |
| +1.7% #47 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.7% #46 |
| −5.0% #11 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −6.0% #5 |
| +0.6% #44 | Havoc created | +3.1% #15 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.133 #123 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.174 #127 |
| +0.055 #94 | Passing explosiveness | +0.108 #70 |
| −0.14 #72 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.35 #95 |
| −0.055 #46 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.102 #105 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #83 | Run rate | 61% #20 |
| −8.8 #77 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.2 #71 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oklahoma State | Season to date | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 37.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 41.0 / 19.8 |
| +17.5 | Avg margin | +21.2 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.6 |
| 70.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.2 |
Oklahoma State: last 4 games
| W41-24 | |
| W59-0 | |
| W39-31 | |
| L10-24 |
Houston: last 5 games
| W27-17 | |
| W42-28 | |
| L26-28 | |
| W77-6 | |
| W33-20 |
