Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 69° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Syracuse–UConn) | 25–26 | – | 42–41 |
| Spread | UConn −0.6 | Syracuse −6.5 | Syracuse −1 |
| Total | 50.9 | 51.5 | 83 |
| UConn win chance | 51% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UConn +6.5 Won★ Under 51.5 Lost
Spread: 7.1 pts better than Vegas for UConn (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UConn by 0.618%
Syracuse by 14+
31%
Syracuse by 1–13
32%
UConn by 1–13
20%
UConn by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Syracuse | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.114 #112 | Offense EPA / play | −0.007 #67 |
| −0.024 #48 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.037 #74 |
| −2.1% #90 | Offense success rate | −2.8% #99 |
| +0.8% #67 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.4% #86 |
| +0.014 #79 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.057 #57 |
| −0.155 #108 | Passing EPA / play | −0.010 #60 |
| +0.075 #96 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.031 #72 |
| −0.179 #11 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.042 #71 |
| −1.8 #72 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #79 |
| −0.1 #66 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.7 #90 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.8% #58 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.0% #68 |
| −6.7% #9 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.4% #123 |
| +0.15 #55 | Points per drive | −0.25 #77 |
| +0.11 #73 | Points per drive allowed | +0.38 #89 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.06 #102 | Line yards per rush | +0.08 #72 |
| −0.24 #30 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.06 #57 |
| +2.9% #123 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.8% #70 |
| +4.7% #17 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.7% #35 |
| −0.6% #85 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #79 |
| −0.6% #72 | Havoc created | −0.4% #66 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.051 #101 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.011 #66 |
| +0.162 #51 | Passing explosiveness | +0.335 #11 |
| −0.17 #70 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.14 #67 |
| −0.130 #22 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.056 #41 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #108 | Run rate | 57% #54 |
| −13.4 #109 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.1 #125 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Syracuse | Season to date | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 34.8 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 26.2 |
| +11.8 | Avg margin | +9.8 |
| +2.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.9 |
| 72.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.4 |
Syracuse: last 3 games
| L13-27 | |
| L18-21 | |
| W66-3 |
UConn: last 4 games
| L21-24 | |
| W48-20 | |
| L14-38 | |
| W56-7 |
