Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium · 82° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Florida State–Miami) | 20–39 | – |
| Spread | Miami −18.9 | Miami −16.5 |
| Total | 59.6 | 53.5 |
| Miami win chance | 88% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Miami −16.5 ★ Over 53.5
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Miami (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Miami by 18.92%
Florida State by 14+
10%
Florida State by 1–13
26%
Miami by 1–13
62%
Miami by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Florida State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.138 #18 | Offense EPA / play | +0.300 #1 |
| +0.109 #96 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.106 #11 |
| +3.0% #32 | Offense success rate | +11.6% #3 |
| +1.7% #69 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.6% #24 |
| +0.196 #4 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.121 #15 |
| +0.118 #32 | Passing EPA / play | +0.441 #1 |
| +0.042 #65 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.133 #16 |
| +0.114 #91 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.117 #21 |
| +3.6 #41 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +15.4 #4 |
| −2.6 #37 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.9 #6 |
| Situational | ||
| +7.4% #9 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +7.2% #10 |
| −0.5% #50 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.6% #28 |
| +0.46 #38 | Points per drive | +2.83 #3 |
| +0.02 #40 | Points per drive allowed | −0.46 #15 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.37 #7 | Line yards per rush | +0.45 #5 |
| +0.21 #85 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.38 #14 |
| −4.1% #8 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.2% #5 |
| −2.2% #90 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.7% #17 |
| −0.5% #54 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.4% #1 |
| +0.3% #51 | Havoc created | +1.0% #41 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.188 #5 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.047 #91 |
| +0.283 #5 | Passing explosiveness | −0.006 #79 |
| +0.36 #20 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.11 #38 |
| −0.050 #63 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.177 #16 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #15 | Run rate | 50% #93 |
| −3.0 #31 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.4 #104 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Florida State | Season to date | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 3-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 33.2 / 21.6 | Points for / against | 49.6 / 9.8 |
| +11.6 | Avg margin | +39.8 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.8 |
| 59.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.8 |
Florida State: last 5 games
| W38-7 | |
| W34-7 | |
| L36-50 | |
| L24-27 | |
| W34-17 |
Miami: last 5 games
| W41-13 | |
| W52-3 | |
| W33-20 | |
| W77-7 | |
| W45-6 |
