Beaver projection
Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM ET
Husky Stadium · 53° · wind 3 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Iowa–Washington) | 24–20 | 21–18 | – |
| Spread | Iowa −4.1 | Iowa −3.2 | Washington −3.5 |
| Total | 43.5 | 38.7 | 41.5 |
| Washington win chance | 40% | – | – |
Line moved from Washington −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Iowa +3.5 ★ Over 41.5
Spread: 7.6 pts better than Vegas for Iowa (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Iowa +3.5 ☆ Under 41.5
Spread: 6.7 pts better than Vegas for Iowa. Total: 2.8 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Iowa by 4.126%
Iowa by 14+
34%
Iowa by 1–13
27%
Washington by 1–13
12%
Washington by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Iowa | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.016 #55 | Offense EPA / play | −0.019 #72 |
| −0.072 #22 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.032 #37 |
| +0.1% #58 | Offense success rate | −0.0% #59 |
| −4.8% #12 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.6% #42 |
| −0.001 #66 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.065 #92 |
| +0.062 #42 | Passing EPA / play | −0.024 #71 |
| −0.152 #9 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.052 #29 |
| +0.119 #93 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.019 #62 |
| +1.3 #57 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #75 |
| −9.3 #7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.4 #38 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% #102 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.3% #98 |
| −4.0% #17 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.2% #53 |
| +0.45 #39 | Points per drive | −0.28 #79 |
| −0.70 #7 | Points per drive allowed | +0.01 #39 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.05 #42 | Line yards per rush | −0.10 #67 |
| −0.22 #21 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.09 #37 |
| −3.1% #16 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.2% #90 |
| +2.2% #26 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.0% #9 |
| −3.8% #7 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.1% #67 |
| −0.5% #65 | Havoc created | +1.2% #35 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.064 #39 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.056 #94 |
| −0.196 #130 | Passing explosiveness | −0.125 #119 |
| +0.22 #31 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.31 #93 |
| +0.145 #124 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.007 #86 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #90 | Run rate | 46% #123 |
| −3.5 #35 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.8 #67 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Iowa | Season to date | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 29.0 / 12.6 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 18.4 |
| +16.4 | Avg margin | +8.2 |
| +3.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -11.7 |
| 50.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.6 |
Iowa: last 5 games
| L14-31 | |
| W20-19 | |
| W55-0 | |
| W16-13 | |
| W40-0 |
Washington: last 5 games
| L21-25 | |
| L24-27 | |
| W48-16 | |
| W16-14 | |
| W24-10 |
