Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Spartan Stadium · 50° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Northwestern–Michigan State) | 29–19 | – |
| Spread | Northwestern −9.6 | No line |
| Total | 47.6 | n/a |
| Michigan State win chance | 27% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Northwestern by 9.639%
Northwestern by 14+
34%
Northwestern by 1–13
20%
Michigan State by 1–13
7%
Michigan State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Northwestern | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.166 #12 | Offense EPA / play | −0.113 #111 |
| +0.012 #55 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.043 #67 |
| +7.3% #10 | Offense success rate | +1.2% #48 |
| +4.2% #92 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.6% #41 |
| +0.166 #7 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.106 #107 |
| +0.143 #24 | Passing EPA / play | −0.132 #107 |
| +0.066 #77 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.009 #49 |
| −0.082 #26 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.054 #72 |
| +5.8 #23 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.5 #94 |
| −6.4 #15 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.9 #26 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.0% #17 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.0% #87 |
| −2.0% #35 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.6% #60 |
| +0.18 #59 | Points per drive | −0.46 #88 |
| −0.65 #9 | Points per drive allowed | −0.29 #22 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.23 #19 | Line yards per rush | −0.18 #83 |
| +0.37 #114 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #41 |
| −3.9% #11 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.0% #85 |
| −1.5% #78 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.2% #13 |
| −2.6% #20 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.8% #120 |
| +1.2% #37 | Havoc created | −0.8% #69 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.051 #46 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.199 #130 |
| −0.034 #89 | Passing explosiveness | −0.180 #127 |
| +0.47 #13 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.49 #115 |
| −0.224 #6 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.140 #123 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #23 | Run rate | 54% #46 |
| +3.1 #9 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +5.5 #2 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Northwestern | Season to date | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 33.0 / 16.8 | Points for / against | 18.2 / 23.2 |
| +16.2 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| +17.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 59.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Northwestern: last 4 games
| W34-13 | |
| L23-29 | |
| W41-7 | |
| W34-18 |
Michigan State: last 5 games
| L3-31 | |
| L13-31 | |
| L10-27 | |
| W35-7 | |
| W30-20 |
