Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AM ET
Autzen Stadium · 45° · wind 2 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Nebraska–Oregon) | 21–37 | – |
| Spread | Oregon −15.9 | Oregon −12.5 |
| Total | 58.1 | 58.5 |
| Oregon win chance | 84% | – |
Line moved from Oregon −21.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oregon −12.5 ★ Under 58.5
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Oregon (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon by 15.93%
Nebraska by 14+
13%
Nebraska by 1–13
29%
Oregon by 1–13
55%
Oregon by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Nebraska | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.147 #17 | Offense EPA / play | +0.168 #12 |
| −0.058 #31 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.119 #10 |
| +4.7% #22 | Offense success rate | +4.7% #21 |
| −3.7% #24 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.2% #12 |
| +0.232 #5 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.117 #32 |
| +0.068 #39 | Passing EPA / play | +0.189 #14 |
| +0.029 #69 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.016 #47 |
| −0.152 #15 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.256 #4 |
| +8.5 #16 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +14.8 #5 |
| −4.0 #36 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.3 #21 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.5% #10 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.3% #23 |
| −7.1% #5 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.5% #23 |
| +0.94 #21 | Points per drive | +2.15 #6 |
| −0.34 #41 | Points per drive allowed | −0.94 #11 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.47 #17 | Line yards per rush | +0.29 #39 |
| −0.03 #63 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.28 #24 |
| −4.8% #29 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.9% #28 |
| −0.6% #78 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.0% #72 |
| −3.0% #35 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.1% #9 |
| +1.7% #28 | Havoc created | +2.8% #18 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.216 #4 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.058 #50 |
| +0.092 #78 | Passing explosiveness | +0.257 #25 |
| +0.36 #17 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.19 #76 |
| +0.031 #80 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.058 #44 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #57 | Run rate | 53% #107 |
| −11.0 #95 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.3 #45 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Nebraska | Season to date | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 43.6 / 14.2 | Points for / against | 47.5 / 23.2 |
| +29.4 | Avg margin | +24.2 |
| +8.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.5 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.0 |
Nebraska: last 5 games
| W48-23 | |
| W31-13 | |
| W34-7 | |
| W56-7 | |
| W49-21 |
Oregon: last 4 games
| W41-27 | |
| W84-0 | |
| L31-39 | |
| W34-27 |
