Final
Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium · 63° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Dakota–Boise State) | 15–48 | – | 24–38 |
| Spread | Boise State −32.5 | Boise State −28.5 | Boise State −14 |
| Total | 63.4 | 61.5 | 62 |
| Boise State win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from Boise State −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Boise State −28.5 Lost★ Over 61.5 Won
Spread: 4.0 pts better than Vegas for Boise State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Boise State by 32.50%
South Dakota by 14+
2%
South Dakota by 1–13
11%
Boise State by 1–13
87%
Boise State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Dakota | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.015 | Offense EPA / play | +0.105 #22 |
| +0.225 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.025 #41 |
| −2.9% | Offense success rate | +1.8% #42 |
| +5.8% | Defense success rate allowed | −3.0% #26 |
| +0.024 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.129 #25 |
| +0.105 | Passing EPA / play | +0.035 #41 |
| +0.191 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.002 #56 |
| +0.215 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.011 #58 |
| −3.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.5 #35 |
| +11.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #35 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.9% #45 |
| +1.2% | Passing-down success allowed | −1.2% #46 |
| −0.54 | Points per drive | +0.30 #45 |
| +1.78 | Points per drive allowed | −0.59 #18 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.30 | Line yards per rush | +0.49 #11 |
| +0.84 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.29 #21 |
| +9.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.4% #19 |
| −5.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | +6.2% #7 |
| +4.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.9% #9 |
| −1.5% | Havoc created | +2.8% #10 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.250 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.029 #90 |
| +0.324 | Passing explosiveness | +0.145 #56 |
| +0.74 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.08 #56 |
| +0.132 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.189 #127 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% | Run rate | 62% #18 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +5.8 #7 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Dakota | Season to date | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 24.0 / 38.0 | Points for / against | 34.4 / 20.6 |
| -14.0 | Avg margin | +13.8 |
| +14.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.5 |
| 51.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.6 |
