Final
Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium · 64° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Fresno State–San José State) | 28–20 | – | 26–10 |
| Spread | Fresno State −8.3 | Fresno State −4 | Fresno State −16 |
| Total | 47.3 | 47.5 | 36 |
| San José State win chance | 30% | – | – |
Line moved from Fresno State −7.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Fresno State −4 Won★ Under 47.5 Won
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Fresno State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Fresno State by 8.336%
Fresno State by 14+
34%
Fresno State by 1–13
22%
San José State by 1–13
8%
San José State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Fresno State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.100 #109 | Offense EPA / play | −0.081 #99 |
| +0.001 #54 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.070 #85 |
| −3.0% #100 | Offense success rate | −4.3% #117 |
| +3.9% #105 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.3% #127 |
| −0.122 #132 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.127 #134 |
| +0.091 #28 | Passing EPA / play | −0.025 #64 |
| −0.135 #13 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.154 #126 |
| +0.194 #118 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.015 #62 |
| −4.9 #99 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #93 |
| −2.7 #40 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.5 #100 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.2% #76 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.1% #122 |
| +7.2% #133 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.1% #49 |
| −0.21 #64 | Points per drive | −0.90 #109 |
| +0.33 #83 | Points per drive allowed | +0.50 #95 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.21 #121 | Line yards per rush | +0.00 #90 |
| +0.06 #74 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #108 |
| +2.3% #120 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.3% #121 |
| +2.8% #35 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.8% #134 |
| −1.7% #62 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #89 |
| −0.7% #71 | Havoc created | −1.5% #89 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.169 #131 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.016 #69 |
| +0.199 #38 | Passing explosiveness | +0.142 #58 |
| −0.42 #112 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.57 #130 |
| +0.023 #78 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.199 #8 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #61 | Run rate | 54% #90 |
| −4.7 #40 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.5 #68 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Fresno State | Season to date | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.8 / 16.4 | Points for / against | 22.6 / 25.0 |
| +11.4 | Avg margin | -2.4 |
| +9.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.4 |
| 55.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
Fresno State: last 2 games
| W49-3 | |
| L0-39 |
San José State: last 3 games
| W30-20 | |
| W27-21 | |
| L26-42 |
