Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium · 81° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Utah State–Boise State) | 15–35 | – | 18–37 |
| Spread | Boise State −20.1 | Boise State −19.5 | Boise State −19 |
| Total | 50.1 | 50.5 | 55 |
| Boise State win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from Boise State −20.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Boise State −19.5 Lost★ Under 50.5 Lost
Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Boise State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Boise State by 20.12%
Utah State by 14+
9%
Utah State by 1–13
25%
Boise State by 1–13
65%
Boise State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Utah State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.147 #119 | Offense EPA / play | +0.085 #27 |
| +0.030 #66 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.038 #34 |
| −5.7% #111 | Offense success rate | +3.6% #26 |
| +3.2% #81 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.5% #26 |
| −0.156 #119 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.052 #41 |
| −0.148 #109 | Passing EPA / play | +0.073 #42 |
| +0.075 #84 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.004 #48 |
| −0.046 #37 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.055 #35 |
| −9.7 #124 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.0 #41 |
| +0.8 #62 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.7 #28 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.4% #39 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.6% #26 |
| +0.2% #56 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.2% #58 |
| −1.45 #128 | Points per drive | +0.23 #46 |
| +0.28 #48 | Points per drive allowed | −0.29 #17 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.21 #91 | Line yards per rush | +0.18 #25 |
| +0.10 #67 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.19 #24 |
| +3.3% #103 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #52 |
| −1.9% #86 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.6% #6 |
| +1.9% #103 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.9% #9 |
| −3.5% #121 | Havoc created | +2.9% #15 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.076 #105 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.050 #94 |
| +0.176 #18 | Passing explosiveness | −0.033 #86 |
| −0.36 #104 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.02 #51 |
| −0.289 #5 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.229 #133 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #113 | Run rate | 59% #13 |
| −4.0 #28 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.2 #20 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Utah State | Season to date | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 14.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 34.4 / 20.6 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | +13.8 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.5 |
| 60.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.6 |
Utah State: last 4 games
| W21-10 | |
| L0-33 | |
| L14-16 | |
| L17-29 |
Boise State: last 4 games
| W32-7 | |
| W38-24 | |
| W38-20 | |
| L27-34 |
