Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 6:00 PM ET
Reser Stadium · 68° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (WSU–Oregon State) | 17–32 | – |
| Spread | Oregon State −15.2 | No line |
| Total | 49.3 | n/a |
| Oregon State win chance | 83% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon State by 15.23%
Washington State by 14+
14%
Washington State by 1–13
30%
Oregon State by 1–13
53%
Oregon State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.195 #131 | Offense EPA / play | +0.084 #30 |
| +0.028 #69 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.010 #60 |
| −6.9% #129 | Offense success rate | +2.9% #37 |
| +2.0% #83 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.2% #52 |
| −0.097 #118 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.013 #90 |
| −0.254 #127 | Passing EPA / play | +0.063 #40 |
| +0.050 #85 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.014 #60 |
| +0.011 #58 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.031 #41 |
| −8.6 #114 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.7 #51 |
| +1.5 #77 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #49 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.6% #137 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.5% #22 |
| −0.1% #69 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.8% #57 |
| −1.18 #122 | Points per drive | +0.36 #44 |
| −0.12 #53 | Points per drive allowed | −0.11 #54 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.11 #106 | Line yards per rush | +0.25 #49 |
| +0.06 #76 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #81 |
| +1.8% #121 | Runs stuffed at the line | −8.0% #1 |
| −0.5% #77 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.1% #114 |
| +2.1% #129 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.5% #26 |
| −2.7% #112 | Havoc created | +0.5% #46 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.125 #25 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.095 #113 |
| −0.133 #134 | Passing explosiveness | +0.180 #37 |
| −0.22 #82 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #68 |
| +0.091 #101 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.058 #45 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #89 | Run rate | 46% #134 |
| −5.2 #44 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.9 #54 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WSU | Season to date | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 19.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 37.0 / 23.6 |
| -6.0 | Avg margin | +13.4 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +15.5 |
| 56.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Washington State: last 5 games
| L6-26 | |
| L24-34 | |
| W48-7 | |
| L7-34 | |
| L10-24 |
Oregon State: last 5 games
| W56-26 | |
| W33-7 | |
| W52-17 | |
| L24-35 | |
| L20-33 |
