Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium · 60° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (FAU–Army) | 26–32 | – |
| Spread | Army −5.9 | No line |
| Total | 58.0 | n/a |
| Army win chance | 64% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Army by 5.911%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
25%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
33%
Army by 1–13
31%
Army by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| FAU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.004 #67 | Offense EPA / play | +0.031 #49 |
| +0.193 #128 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.212 #134 |
| −0.8% #69 | Offense success rate | +1.3% #47 |
| +3.8% #85 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.7% #129 |
| −0.035 #79 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.133 #11 |
| −0.013 #66 | Passing EPA / play | −0.072 #86 |
| +0.203 #129 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.207 #132 |
| +0.164 #111 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.231 #125 |
| −0.6 #68 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #79 |
| +9.8 #124 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.7 #70 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.3% #29 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.3% #90 |
| +3.0% #88 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.2% #121 |
| +1.00 #17 | Points per drive | +0.07 #62 |
| +1.66 #124 | Points per drive allowed | +0.88 #90 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.17 #82 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #35 |
| +0.12 #70 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.59 #131 |
| −0.9% #45 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #31 |
| +0.4% #51 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.4% #91 |
| +1.5% #102 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.9% #2 |
| −1.2% #79 | Havoc created | −4.1% #128 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.027 #58 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.082 #34 |
| −0.119 #118 | Passing explosiveness | +0.002 #73 |
| −0.79 #135 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.22 #30 |
| +0.204 #132 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.029 #69 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% #130 | Run rate | 78% #2 |
| −19.1 #129 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.8 #105 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| FAU | Season to date | Army |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-2-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 37.2 / 26.6 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 19.8 |
| +10.6 | Avg margin | +13.5 |
| +3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.8 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Florida Atlantic: last 5 games
| W66-10 | |
| W45-17 | |
| W16-10 | |
| W38-30 | |
| L21-66 |
Army: last 4 games
| L29-31 | |
| W21-17 | |
| L24-28 | |
| W59-3 |
