Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium · 76° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Kent State–South Florida) | 14–35 | – |
| Spread | South Florida −21.0 | No line |
| Total | 48.9 | n/a |
| South Florida win chance | 91% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Florida by 21.01%
Kent State by 14+
8%
Kent State by 1–13
24%
South Florida by 1–13
67%
South Florida by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kent State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.192 #130 | Offense EPA / play | −0.057 #88 |
| +0.070 #81 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.042 #73 |
| −9.4% #136 | Offense success rate | +1.1% #55 |
| +6.0% #122 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.0% #93 |
| −0.142 #130 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.060 #59 |
| −0.145 #107 | Passing EPA / play | −0.182 #111 |
| +0.070 #92 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.108 #20 |
| +0.071 #80 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.236 #128 |
| −13.2 #133 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.3 #88 |
| +7.9 #120 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.1 #64 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.4% #133 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.4% #51 |
| +3.3% #98 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.2% #77 |
| −1.54 #134 | Points per drive | −0.54 #94 |
| +1.99 #137 | Points per drive allowed | +0.23 #80 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.26 #122 | Line yards per rush | −0.03 #96 |
| +0.30 #117 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.09 #49 |
| +0.7% #105 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.7% #106 |
| −1.6% #94 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.8% #21 |
| +1.1% #121 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #86 |
| −1.7% #95 | Havoc created | +0.5% #47 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.012 #82 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.025 #86 |
| +0.317 #13 | Passing explosiveness | −0.145 #135 |
| −0.71 #131 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #87 |
| −0.061 #43 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.003 #68 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #41 | Run rate | 57% #52 |
| −5.9 #56 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.2 #127 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kent State | Season to date | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 15.0 / 31.4 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 14.6 |
| -16.4 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| -0.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.4 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Kent State: last 5 games
| L10-13 | |
| W26-13 | |
| L3-59 | |
| W36-15 | |
| L0-57 |
South Florida: last 5 games
| L13-17 | |
| W14-6 | |
| W59-17 | |
| W28-24 | |
| W19-9 |
