Final
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET
Hornet Stadium · 78° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Massachusetts–SAC) | 28–24 | – | 35–6 |
| Spread | Massachusetts −4.3 | Massachusetts −6 | Massachusetts −29 |
| Total | 51.7 | 49.5 | 41 |
| Sacramento State win chance | 39% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SAC +6 Lost★ Over 49.5 Lost
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Sacramento State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Massachusetts by 4.327%
Massachusetts by 14+
33%
Massachusetts by 1–13
27%
Sacramento State by 1–13
13%
Sacramento State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Massachusetts | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.087 #102 | Offense EPA / play | −0.239 #136 |
| +0.051 #74 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.174 #126 |
| −5.6% #112 | Offense success rate | −9.4% #135 |
| +3.4% #83 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.0% #100 |
| −0.065 #91 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.248 #137 |
| −0.042 #83 | Passing EPA / play | −0.257 #130 |
| −0.058 #30 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.039 #67 |
| +0.123 #97 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.257 #131 |
| −8.2 #116 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −12.3 #135 |
| +9.7 #124 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +13.1 #134 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.0% #107 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −11.9% #136 |
| −1.0% #41 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.8% #62 |
| −0.76 #100 | Points per drive | −1.64 #137 |
| +1.79 #129 | Points per drive allowed | +1.84 #130 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.43 #124 | Line yards per rush | −1.03 #137 |
| +0.11 #67 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.36 #112 |
| +3.3% #108 | Runs stuffed at the line | +13.9% #138 |
| −2.0% #86 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.3% #105 |
| +1.3% #98 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.3% #124 |
| −2.8% #113 | Havoc created | −4.5% #133 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.068 #32 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.010 #62 |
| +0.029 #65 | Passing explosiveness | −0.236 #133 |
| −0.44 #116 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #85 |
| +0.016 #88 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.029 #67 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #27 | Run rate | 44% #128 |
| −29.8 #138 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −22.3 #130 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Massachusetts | Season to date | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 31.8 / 17.8 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 28.6 |
| +14.0 | Avg margin | -11.0 |
| +6.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.8 |
| 48.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.6 |
Massachusetts: last 3 games
| W36-14 | |
| W37-10 | |
| W37-21 |
Sacramento State: last 4 games
| L10-31 | |
| L3-49 | |
| W52-0 | |
| L17-28 |
