Final
Sat, Oct 3, 2:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium · 67° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Toledo–Ball State) | 39–17 | – | 39–24 |
| Spread | Toledo −21.6 | Toledo −20.5 | Toledo −15 |
| Total | 56.4 | 52.5 | 63 |
| Ball State win chance | 9% | – | – |
Line moved from Toledo −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Toledo −20.5 Lost★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Toledo (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Toledo by 21.668%
Toledo by 14+
23%
Toledo by 1–13
8%
Ball State by 1–13
1%
Ball State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Toledo | Opponent-adjusted, vs. an average FBS team | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.011 #58 | Offense EPA / play | −0.134 #116 |
| +0.002 #60 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.199 #134 |
| −1.3% #85 | Offense success rate | −9.8% #135 |
| −3.0% #34 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.6% #111 |
| −0.009 #86 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.060 #111 |
| +0.049 #45 | Passing EPA / play | −0.144 #103 |
| −0.020 #50 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.173 #131 |
| +0.152 #103 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.239 #126 |
| +5.2 #24 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −11.0 #130 |
| +5.2 #101 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.1 #130 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.2% #74 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.7% #126 |
| −1.9% #45 | Passing-down success allowed | +8.1% #132 |
| +0.95 #22 | Points per drive | −1.44 #133 |
| +0.46 #98 | Points per drive allowed | +1.69 #135 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #87 | Line yards per rush | −0.39 #130 |
| −0.11 #51 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #76 |
| −2.5% #58 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #102 |
| +0.5% #61 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #57 |
| +0.4% #108 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.5% #133 |
| −3.6% #129 | Havoc created | −2.9% #115 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.076 #43 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.088 #40 |
| +0.421 #6 | Passing explosiveness | +0.124 #61 |
| −0.17 #73 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.01 #55 |
| +0.131 #113 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.045 #88 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #104 | Run rate | 55% #85 |
| −12.8 #103 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.1 #52 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Toledo | Season to date | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 42.4 / 25.6 | Points for / against | 19.2 / 37.8 |
| +16.8 | Avg margin | -18.6 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.7 |
| 58.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.8 |
Toledo: last 4 games
| W41-16 | |
| W49-48 | |
| W63-10 | |
| L20-30 |
Ball State: last 4 games
| L13-26 | |
| L15-51 | |
| W41-17 | |
| L3-56 |
