Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium · 71° · wind 11 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EMU–Akron) | 28–25 | 29–22 | – |
| Spread | EMU −2.9 | EMU −7.3 | EMU −7 |
| Total | 52.7 | 50.6 | 51.5 |
| Akron win chance | 43% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Akron +7 ★ Over 51.5
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Akron (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ EMU −7 ☆ Under 51.5
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Eastern Michigan. Total: 0.9 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around EMU by 2.924%
Eastern Michigan by 14+
33%
Eastern Michigan by 1–13
28%
Akron by 1–13
15%
Akron by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| EMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.113 #110 | Offense EPA / play | −0.156 #121 |
| +0.151 #115 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.231 #135 |
| −4.8% #101 | Offense success rate | −4.8% #102 |
| +6.7% #118 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.9% #124 |
| −0.074 #96 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.112 #109 |
| −0.122 #98 | Passing EPA / play | −0.181 #114 |
| +0.112 #102 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.093 #93 |
| +0.145 #98 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.287 #132 |
| −8.7 #115 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.7 #124 |
| +8.7 #121 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +12.6 #132 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.6% #81 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.2% #109 |
| +8.4% #126 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.7% #117 |
| −0.94 #104 | Points per drive | −1.17 #118 |
| +1.51 #118 | Points per drive allowed | +1.70 #126 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.42 #116 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #58 |
| +0.20 #83 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.35 #110 |
| +3.8% #109 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.6% #68 |
| −1.7% #82 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.4% #93 |
| +3.1% #122 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.6% #129 |
| −1.1% #78 | Havoc created | −2.1% #101 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.057 #42 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.129 #117 |
| −0.176 #126 | Passing explosiveness | −0.109 #116 |
| −0.38 #103 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #104 |
| +0.027 #93 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.280 #137 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #121 | Run rate | 47% #118 |
| −15.3 #114 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.4 #86 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| EMU | Season to date | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 22.2 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 33.6 |
| -2.8 | Avg margin | -14.6 |
| -1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.9 |
| 60.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.8 |
Eastern Michigan: last 5 games
| W38-14 | |
| W29-3 | |
| L10-54 | |
| L7-35 | |
| L21-27 |
Akron: last 5 games
| L17-41 | |
| L10-38 | |
| L7-41 | |
| W45-10 | |
| L16-38 |
