Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Glass Bowl · 74° · wind 11 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Buffalo–Toledo) | 17–44 | 13–47 | – |
| Spread | Toledo −26.6 | Toledo −33.4 | Toledo −21 |
| Total | 61.3 | 60.2 | 54.5 |
| Toledo win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Toledo −20.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Toledo −21 ★ Over 54.5
Spread: 5.6 pts better than Vegas for Toledo (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Toledo −21 ☆ Over 54.5
Spread: 12.4 pts better than Vegas for Toledo. Total: 5.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Toledo by 26.61%
Buffalo by 14+
5%
Buffalo by 1–13
17%
Toledo by 1–13
78%
Toledo by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Buffalo | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.198 #128 | Offense EPA / play | +0.002 #64 |
| +0.202 #129 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.043 #65 |
| −10.5% #135 | Offense success rate | −2.1% #81 |
| +5.2% #99 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.1% #50 |
| −0.202 #130 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.024 #73 |
| −0.205 #121 | Passing EPA / play | +0.015 #60 |
| +0.160 #121 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.014 #39 |
| +0.242 #129 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.211 #121 |
| −9.4 #122 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.7 #25 |
| +14.9 #134 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.8 #103 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.0% #126 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.7% #93 |
| +1.5% #81 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.0% #68 |
| −1.50 #130 | Points per drive | +0.67 #25 |
| +1.80 #129 | Points per drive allowed | +0.93 #95 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.67 #130 | Line yards per rush | −0.07 #61 |
| +0.68 #135 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.03 #57 |
| +4.8% #120 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.4% #56 |
| −5.5% #125 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.7% #47 |
| +2.6% #118 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.1% #94 |
| −2.1% #100 | Havoc created | −3.1% #114 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.056 #44 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.057 #43 |
| −0.078 #101 | Passing explosiveness | +0.227 #10 |
| −0.42 #109 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.04 #47 |
| +0.250 #135 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.071 #107 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #73 | Run rate | 50% #86 |
| −17.7 #122 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.6 #115 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Buffalo | Season to date | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 20.4 / 30.6 | Points for / against | 42.4 / 25.6 |
| -10.2 | Avg margin | +16.8 |
| -7.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 70.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.4 |
Buffalo: last 5 games
| L17-20 | |
| W31-28 | |
| L13-55 | |
| L20-33 | |
| W21-17 |
Toledo: last 5 games
| W39-24 | |
| W41-16 | |
| W49-48 | |
| W63-10 | |
| L20-30 |
