Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET
UB Stadium · 79° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Massachusetts–Buffalo) | 25–27 | – |
| Spread | Buffalo −1.6 | No line |
| Total | 51.7 | n/a |
| Buffalo win chance | 54% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Buffalo by 1.616%
Massachusetts by 14+
30%
Massachusetts by 1–13
32%
Buffalo by 1–13
22%
Buffalo by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Massachusetts | Opponent-adjusted, vs. an average FBS team | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.085 #101 | Offense EPA / play | −0.183 #127 |
| +0.091 #98 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.183 #130 |
| −4.0% #108 | Offense success rate | −9.2% #135 |
| +6.7% #126 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.7% #98 |
| −0.030 #101 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.136 #126 |
| −0.064 #81 | Passing EPA / play | −0.219 #121 |
| +0.032 #71 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.138 #119 |
| +0.153 #104 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.247 #130 |
| −8.9 #118 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.0 #119 |
| +8.4 #122 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +13.6 #134 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.9% #80 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.1% #125 |
| +5.9% #122 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.1% #75 |
| −0.78 #99 | Points per drive | −1.38 #128 |
| +1.49 #131 | Points per drive allowed | +1.31 #128 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.08 #102 | Line yards per rush | −0.40 #130 |
| +0.36 #120 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.56 #135 |
| +1.1% #113 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.7% #117 |
| −3.3% #120 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.3% #125 |
| −0.7% #82 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.0% #118 |
| −3.1% #121 | Havoc created | −1.6% #89 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.031 #89 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.082 #40 |
| +0.140 #52 | Passing explosiveness | +0.052 #96 |
| −0.57 #124 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.43 #108 |
| +0.032 #81 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.273 #135 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #33 | Run rate | 56% #64 |
| −26.3 #138 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.5 #124 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Massachusetts | Season to date | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 31.8 / 17.8 | Points for / against | 20.4 / 30.6 |
| +14.0 | Avg margin | -10.2 |
| +6.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.1 |
| 48.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.2 |
Massachusetts: last 5 games
| L14-38 | |
| W35-6 | |
| W36-14 | |
| W37-10 | |
| W37-21 |
Buffalo: last 5 games
| L17-20 | |
| W31-28 | |
| L13-55 | |
| L20-33 | |
| W21-17 |
