Beaver projection
Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC) · 65° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (App State–CCU) | 29–25 | – |
| Spread | App State −3.6 | No line |
| Total | 54.6 | n/a |
| Coastal Carolina win chance | 41% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around App State by 3.626%
App State by 14+
33%
App State by 1–13
27%
Coastal Carolina by 1–13
14%
Coastal Carolina by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| App State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.028 #77 | Offense EPA / play | −0.090 #105 |
| +0.081 #91 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.111 #106 |
| −3.5% #97 | Offense success rate | −5.0% #116 |
| +4.3% #109 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.6% #120 |
| −0.122 #123 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.025 #98 |
| +0.122 #29 | Passing EPA / play | −0.167 #109 |
| +0.146 #124 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.035 #75 |
| +0.001 #55 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.326 #135 |
| −2.3 #77 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.3 #112 |
| +5.1 #100 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.1 #110 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.8% #41 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.5% #74 |
| −3.6% #28 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.9% #47 |
| −0.12 #71 | Points per drive | −1.26 #124 |
| +0.32 #90 | Points per drive allowed | +0.45 #96 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.48 #133 | Line yards per rush | +0.28 #41 |
| +0.16 #94 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #113 |
| +2.4% #123 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.2% #56 |
| −0.8% #86 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.6% #108 |
| −2.6% #46 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.3% #132 |
| −0.6% #69 | Havoc created | −3.4% #124 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.033 #91 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.084 #108 |
| +0.127 #60 | Passing explosiveness | +0.447 #2 |
| −0.72 #132 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.35 #98 |
| −0.089 #32 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.063 #41 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #109 | Run rate | 53% #106 |
| −17.8 #130 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.6 #113 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| App State | Season to date | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 34.8 / 22.2 | Points for / against | 24.8 / 25.0 |
| +12.5 | Avg margin | -0.2 |
| +7.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.4 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
App State: last 4 games
| L31-41 | |
| W26-21 | |
| W27-24 | |
| W55-3 |
Coastal Carolina: last 5 games
| L24-31 | |
| L17-34 | |
| L14-22 | |
| W45-7 | |
| L24-31 |
