Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium · 76° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kennesaw State–Arkansas State) | 21–28 | – | 14–17 |
| Spread | Arkansas State −7.4 | Arkansas State −6.5 | Arkansas State −3 |
| Total | 49.5 | 53.5 | 31 |
| Arkansas State win chance | 68% | – | – |
Line moved from Arkansas State −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Arkansas State −6.5 Lost★ Under 53.5 Won
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for Arkansas State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arkansas State by 7.49%
Kennesaw State by 14+
23%
Kennesaw State by 1–13
34%
Arkansas State by 1–13
34%
Arkansas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kennesaw State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.075 #99 | Offense EPA / play | −0.109 #109 |
| +0.113 #106 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.137 #119 |
| −2.3% #94 | Offense success rate | +0.9% #56 |
| +4.6% #113 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.3% #107 |
| +0.005 #85 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.048 #62 |
| −0.115 #101 | Passing EPA / play | −0.186 #117 |
| +0.046 #86 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.039 #37 |
| +0.197 #120 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.364 #136 |
| −9.2 #128 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #88 |
| +3.0 #85 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.8 #100 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.3% #107 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.1% #84 |
| +4.3% #112 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.9% #108 |
| −1.16 #123 | Points per drive | −0.02 #63 |
| +0.48 #97 | Points per drive allowed | +0.47 #95 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.14 #117 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #66 |
| +0.21 #104 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.34 #122 |
| +5.8% #136 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.2% #65 |
| +0.8% #57 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.1% #131 |
| −0.4% #93 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #69 |
| −4.1% #133 | Havoc created | −2.5% #112 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.068 #44 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.002 #72 |
| −0.121 #132 | Passing explosiveness | −0.068 #126 |
| −0.08 #57 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.37 #105 |
| −0.132 #19 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.272 #136 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #93 | Run rate | 55% #78 |
| −10.4 #68 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.4 #84 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kennesaw State | Season to date | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 0-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 21.8 / 22.5 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 23.4 |
| -0.8 | Avg margin | +0.6 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.3 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.4 |
Kennesaw State: last 3 games
| L9-42 | |
| L17-31 | |
| W47-0 |
Arkansas State: last 3 games
| L7-31 | |
| W52-7 | |
| L24-42 |
