Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium · 73° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Arkansas State–Southern Miss) | 29–27 | – |
| Spread | Arkansas State −2.5 | No line |
| Total | 55.8 | n/a |
| Southern Miss win chance | 44% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arkansas State by 2.524%
Arkansas State by 14+
32%
Arkansas State by 1–13
29%
Southern Miss by 1–13
15%
Southern Miss by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arkansas State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.041 #81 | Offense EPA / play | −0.087 #103 |
| +0.140 #119 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.148 #121 |
| +0.9% #56 | Offense success rate | −1.6% #87 |
| +6.9% #128 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.5% #118 |
| +0.070 #52 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.051 #62 |
| −0.113 #92 | Passing EPA / play | −0.132 #98 |
| +0.013 #57 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.191 #134 |
| +0.300 #133 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.166 #113 |
| −5.0 #91 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.2 #92 |
| +2.5 #83 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.6 #130 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.7% #66 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.3% #103 |
| +7.2% #128 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.4% #112 |
| −0.14 #72 | Points per drive | −0.38 #84 |
| +0.35 #91 | Points per drive allowed | +1.24 #126 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.08 #73 | Line yards per rush | +0.31 #32 |
| +0.58 #137 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.40 #125 |
| −1.8% #70 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.6% #21 |
| −6.7% #137 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.2% #124 |
| −0.7% #83 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #94 |
| −3.8% #131 | Havoc created | −4.7% #136 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.041 #61 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.150 #125 |
| +0.021 #104 | Passing explosiveness | +0.135 #55 |
| −0.56 #122 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.69 #129 |
| +0.148 #117 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.019 #75 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #98 | Run rate | 51% #119 |
| −8.7 #75 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.1 #102 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arkansas State | Season to date | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 26.4 / 34.6 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | -8.2 |
| -0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.3 |
| 54.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Arkansas State: last 5 games
| L20-23 | |
| W17-14 | |
| L7-31 | |
| W52-7 | |
| L24-42 |
Southern Miss: last 5 games
| L34-55 | |
| L21-24 | |
| L20-48 | |
| L8-43 | |
| W49-3 |
