Beaver projection
Wed, Oct 14, 7:30 PM ET
Plaster Sports Complex · 82° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Kennesaw State–Missouri State) | 26–22 | – |
| Spread | Kennesaw State −4.5 | No line |
| Total | 47.8 | n/a |
| Missouri State win chance | 39% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kennesaw State by 4.527%
Kennesaw State by 14+
34%
Kennesaw State by 1–13
27%
Missouri State by 1–13
12%
Missouri State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kennesaw State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. an average FBS team | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.071 #97 | Offense EPA / play | −0.114 #114 |
| +0.124 #109 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.128 #113 |
| −1.6% #88 | Offense success rate | −4.9% #114 |
| +4.5% #110 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.0% #129 |
| +0.045 #65 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.058 #109 |
| −0.168 #110 | Passing EPA / play | −0.142 #103 |
| +0.028 #67 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.082 #98 |
| +0.216 #122 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.161 #107 |
| −8.6 #113 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.4 #105 |
| +1.0 #73 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.1 #125 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.2% #94 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −11.6% #136 |
| +3.8% #103 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.4% #116 |
| −1.00 #111 | Points per drive | −0.52 #93 |
| +0.28 #85 | Points per drive allowed | +1.33 #129 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #82 | Line yards per rush | −0.05 #99 |
| +0.17 #96 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.21 #102 |
| +4.3% #131 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #68 |
| +0.7% #57 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.8% #110 |
| −1.6% #64 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.3% #131 |
| −3.9% #132 | Havoc created | −1.9% #100 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.031 #65 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.083 #107 |
| −0.153 #136 | Passing explosiveness | +0.091 #79 |
| −0.34 #93 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.45 #111 |
| −0.160 #11 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.039 #84 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #75 | Run rate | 53% #99 |
| −7.6 #65 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.3 #83 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kennesaw State | Season to date | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 0-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 21.8 / 22.5 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 32.0 |
| -0.8 | Avg margin | -8.0 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.1 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.5 |
Kennesaw State: last 4 games
| L14-17 | |
| L9-42 | |
| L17-31 | |
| W47-0 |
Missouri State: last 4 games
| L24-34 | |
| L24-30 | |
| W48-14 | |
| L0-50 |
