Beaver projection
Tue, Oct 13, 7:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 73° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Delaware–MTSU) | 28–21 | – |
| Spread | Delaware −6.6 | No line |
| Total | 49.5 | n/a |
| Middle Tennessee win chance | 34% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Delaware by 6.632%
Delaware by 14+
34%
Delaware by 1–13
24%
Middle Tennessee by 1–13
10%
Middle Tennessee by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Delaware | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.108 #109 | Offense EPA / play | −0.151 #119 |
| +0.147 #110 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.154 #115 |
| −4.8% #101 | Offense success rate | −7.5% #128 |
| +5.8% #103 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.8% #130 |
| −0.162 #120 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.122 #114 |
| −0.114 #95 | Passing EPA / play | −0.209 #122 |
| +0.070 #80 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.168 #122 |
| +0.171 #114 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.106 #88 |
| −8.4 #110 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −13.0 #132 |
| +8.5 #117 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.4 #126 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.7% #108 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.5% #117 |
| +1.3% #74 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.4% #75 |
| −1.03 #110 | Points per drive | −1.59 #133 |
| +1.50 #116 | Points per drive allowed | +1.63 #123 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.64 #129 | Line yards per rush | −0.24 #95 |
| +0.04 #59 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.54 #128 |
| +7.2% #130 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.5% #104 |
| −0.7% #66 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.5% #120 |
| +6.1% #137 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.6% #107 |
| +0.0% #57 | Havoc created | −5.0% #135 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.200 #131 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.036 #83 |
| +0.106 #31 | Passing explosiveness | −0.159 #124 |
| −0.66 #130 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.64 #128 |
| −0.117 #37 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.158 #22 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 44% #129 | Run rate | 41% #135 |
| −11.5 #91 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.3 #130 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Delaware | Season to date | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 21.4 / 25.6 | Points for / against | 20.8 / 28.0 |
| -4.2 | Avg margin | -7.2 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.0 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Delaware: last 5 games
| L14-30 | |
| L3-42 | |
| W22-14 | |
| L26-35 | |
| W42-7 |
Middle Tennessee: last 5 games
| L0-55 | |
| L13-23 | |
| W27-20 | |
| L26-28 | |
| W38-14 |
