Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 PM ET
Malone Stadium · 56° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisiana Tech–UL Monroe) | 36–18 | – |
| Spread | Louisiana Tech −17.4 | No line |
| Total | 54.1 | n/a |
| UL Monroe win chance | 14% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana Tech by 17.458%
Louisiana Tech by 14+
28%
Louisiana Tech by 1–13
11%
UL Monroe by 1–13
2%
UL Monroe by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisiana Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.054 #85 | Offense EPA / play | −0.210 #133 |
| +0.014 #63 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.220 #137 |
| −3.9% #106 | Offense success rate | −5.2% #119 |
| −1.4% #48 | Defense success rate allowed | +9.1% #136 |
| −0.007 #86 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.104 #121 |
| −0.051 #77 | Passing EPA / play | −0.240 #124 |
| +0.048 #83 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.211 #137 |
| −0.013 #44 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.260 #131 |
| +0.4 #60 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.1 #127 |
| +5.0 #99 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +16.4 #138 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.2% #85 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.1% #102 |
| −0.8% #58 | Passing-down success allowed | +10.4% #136 |
| +0.41 #39 | Points per drive | −1.29 #126 |
| +0.28 #83 | Points per drive allowed | +1.92 #136 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.21 #117 | Line yards per rush | −0.29 #125 |
| −0.21 #33 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.49 #133 |
| +3.2% #126 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.0% #122 |
| +2.5% #36 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.3% #118 |
| −0.8% #77 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.5% #124 |
| +3.5% #10 | Havoc created | −4.7% #135 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.129 #121 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.109 #116 |
| +0.348 #8 | Passing explosiveness | +0.053 #95 |
| +0.28 #24 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #99 |
| +0.004 #69 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.044 #87 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #37 | Run rate | 56% #71 |
| −9.7 #87 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.6 #90 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisiana Tech | Season to date | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 0-5 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 0-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 36.0 / 29.0 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 44.6 |
| +7.0 | Avg margin | -20.6 |
| +9.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -10.1 |
| 49.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Louisiana Tech: last 4 games
| W31-29 | |
| L19-36 | |
| L14-45 | |
| W80-6 |
UL Monroe: last 5 games
| L35-52 | |
| L17-45 | |
| L35-38 | |
| L20-26 | |
| L13-62 |
