Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium · 91° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Florida State–Alabama) | 14–43 | – | 36–50 |
| Spread | Alabama −28.9 | Alabama −18.5 | Alabama −14 |
| Total | 57.2 | 50.5 | 86 |
| Alabama win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Alabama −15.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Alabama −18.5 Lost★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 10.4 pts better than Vegas for Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 6.7 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Alabama by 28.90%
Florida State by 14+
3%
Florida State by 1–13
14%
Alabama by 1–13
82%
Alabama by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Florida State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.078 #27 | Offense EPA / play | +0.156 #11 |
| +0.080 #92 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.246 #2 |
| +1.3% #52 | Offense success rate | +8.0% #8 |
| +1.4% #74 | Defense success rate allowed | −10.2% #2 |
| +0.169 #14 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.221 #6 |
| +0.036 #40 | Passing EPA / play | +0.090 #29 |
| +0.044 #80 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.281 #1 |
| +0.096 #92 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.250 #4 |
| +1.1 #46 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +15.0 #2 |
| −2.2 #46 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.7 #4 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.9% #46 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.7% #24 |
| +4.3% #116 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.8% #4 |
| −0.01 #54 | Points per drive | +1.86 #7 |
| −0.31 #36 | Points per drive allowed | −1.19 #6 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.40 #20 | Line yards per rush | +0.43 #18 |
| +0.24 #109 | Line yards per rush allowed | −1.11 #1 |
| −7.0% #5 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.7% #28 |
| −4.9% #131 | Opponent runs stuffed | +6.9% #6 |
| −2.3% #43 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #49 |
| −2.2% #107 | Havoc created | +2.8% #11 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.124 #24 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.039 #58 |
| +0.411 #6 | Passing explosiveness | +0.038 #93 |
| +0.10 #38 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.16 #31 |
| +0.111 #109 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.019 #76 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 63% #13 | Run rate | 55% #76 |
| −1.6 #26 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −1.3 #23 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Florida State | Season to date | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 33.2 / 21.6 | Points for / against | 49.6 / 20.8 |
| +11.6 | Avg margin | +28.8 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +13.9 |
| 59.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Florida State: last 2 games
| L24-27 | |
| W34-17 |
Alabama: last 2 games
| W45-17 | |
| W48-10 |
