Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium · 77° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Florida–Auburn) | 27–27 | – | 44–39 |
| Spread | Auburn −0.1 | Florida −2.5 | Florida −5 |
| Total | 54.4 | 53.5 | 83 |
| Auburn win chance | 50% | – | – |
Line moved from Auburn −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Auburn +2.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Auburn (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Auburn by 0.119%
Florida by 14+
31%
Florida by 1–13
31%
Auburn by 1–13
19%
Auburn by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Florida | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.142 #13 | Offense EPA / play | +0.038 #41 |
| −0.064 #26 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.100 #13 |
| +7.6% #10 | Offense success rate | +4.1% #24 |
| −1.6% #44 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.6% #17 |
| +0.203 #9 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.142 #23 |
| +0.100 #25 | Passing EPA / play | −0.075 #87 |
| +0.068 #92 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.196 #5 |
| −0.069 #26 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.002 #51 |
| +8.1 #17 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.6 #43 |
| −4.5 #22 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −7.8 #14 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.7% #56 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.8% #60 |
| +2.0% #85 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.1% #22 |
| +2.20 #5 | Points per drive | +0.02 #51 |
| −0.13 #54 | Points per drive allowed | −0.98 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.16 #55 | Line yards per rush | +0.43 #17 |
| +0.30 #118 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.64 #6 |
| −2.6% #58 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.0% #53 |
| −4.6% #128 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.3% #30 |
| −2.7% #40 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #97 |
| +1.6% #27 | Havoc created | +2.0% #25 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.084 #33 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.156 #127 |
| −0.005 #105 | Passing explosiveness | −0.099 #131 |
| +0.12 #34 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.11 #37 |
| −0.063 #37 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.023 #55 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #48 | Run rate | 54% #82 |
| −21.9 #116 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.2 #31 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Florida | Season to date | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 46.2 / 27.2 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 21.4 |
| +19.0 | Avg margin | +5.4 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.7 |
| 53.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.8 |
Florida: last 2 games
| W52-3 | |
| W66-21 |
Auburn: last 2 games
| W43-8 | |
| W17-16 |
