Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium · 67° · wind 5 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Georgia–Alabama) | 30–31 | 32–35 | – |
| Spread | Alabama −1.4 | Alabama −3.3 | Alabama −1.5 |
| Total | 61.5 | 67.0 | 51.5 |
| Alabama win chance | 53% | – | – |
Line moved from Georgia −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia +1.5 ★ Over 51.5
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 10.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Alabama −1.5 ☆ Over 51.5
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Alabama. Total: 15.5 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Alabama by 1.417%
Georgia by 14+
29%
Georgia by 1–13
31%
Alabama by 1–13
22%
Alabama by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Georgia | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.244 #3 | Offense EPA / play | +0.245 #2 |
| −0.106 #10 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.216 #1 |
| +12.5% #1 | Offense success rate | +8.9% #7 |
| −6.3% #7 | Defense success rate allowed | −8.5% #4 |
| +0.156 #8 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.187 #5 |
| +0.254 #7 | Passing EPA / play | +0.288 #6 |
| −0.311 #1 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.295 #2 |
| −0.057 #32 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.196 #12 |
| +17.6 #2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +20.6 #1 |
| −5.7 #20 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.6 #8 |
| Situational | ||
| +9.4% #6 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.6% #27 |
| −7.1% #2 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.1% #3 |
| +2.91 #2 | Points per drive | +2.32 #4 |
| −0.09 #34 | Points per drive allowed | −0.89 #3 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.60 #1 | Line yards per rush | +0.32 #12 |
| −0.71 #3 | Line yards per rush allowed | −1.06 #1 |
| −5.6% #1 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #31 |
| +1.1% #40 | Opponent runs stuffed | +8.8% #1 |
| −3.7% #9 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.4% #38 |
| +1.6% #27 | Havoc created | +4.7% #6 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.196 #129 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.091 #32 |
| −0.097 #111 | Passing explosiveness | +0.096 #36 |
| +0.45 #14 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.52 #12 |
| +0.103 #115 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.061 #103 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #94 | Run rate | 54% #49 |
| −10.8 #88 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +5.1 #4 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Georgia | Season to date | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 5-0 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 51.4 / 13.4 | Points for / against | 49.6 / 20.8 |
| +38.0 | Avg margin | +28.8 |
| +7.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +13.9 |
| 42.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Georgia: last 5 games
| W38-14 | |
| W41-13 | |
| W45-17 | |
| W70-20 | |
| W63-3 |
Alabama: last 5 games
| W56-23 | |
| W49-18 | |
| W50-36 | |
| W45-17 | |
| W48-10 |
