Beaver projection
Fri, Oct 9, 7:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 76° · wind 8 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Florida State–Louisville) | 28–34 | 31–32 | – |
| Spread | Louisville −5.2 | Louisville −1.1 | Louisville −3.5 |
| Total | 62.1 | 63.2 | 59.5 |
| Louisville win chance | 62% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisville −3.5 ★ Over 59.5
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Louisville (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Florida State +3.5 ☆ Over 59.5
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Florida State. Total: 3.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisville by 5.212%
Florida State by 14+
25%
Florida State by 1–13
33%
Louisville by 1–13
30%
Louisville by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Florida State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.139 #18 | Offense EPA / play | +0.115 #20 |
| +0.109 #97 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.016 #57 |
| +3.1% #30 | Offense success rate | +3.9% #23 |
| +1.7% #68 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.8% #29 |
| +0.196 #4 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.063 #36 |
| +0.118 #33 | Passing EPA / play | +0.141 #25 |
| +0.042 #64 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.041 #33 |
| +0.115 #92 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.144 #97 |
| +3.6 #41 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.9 #20 |
| −2.6 #37 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.3 #74 |
| Situational | ||
| +7.4% #9 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.8% #85 |
| −0.4% #51 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.1% #44 |
| +0.47 #38 | Points per drive | +0.29 #51 |
| +0.02 #40 | Points per drive allowed | +0.25 #48 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.38 #7 | Line yards per rush | −0.13 #76 |
| +0.21 #85 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #88 |
| −4.1% #8 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.0% #87 |
| −2.2% #90 | Opponent runs stuffed | −7.5% #137 |
| −0.5% #54 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.8% #111 |
| +0.3% #51 | Havoc created | −1.8% #94 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.188 #5 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.126 #16 |
| +0.283 #5 | Passing explosiveness | +0.079 #40 |
| +0.36 #20 | Open-field yards per rush | +1.08 #3 |
| −0.050 #64 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.296 #138 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #15 | Run rate | 52% #71 |
| −3.0 #31 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.4 #34 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Florida State | Season to date | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 33.2 / 21.6 | Points for / against | 38.6 / 29.2 |
| +11.6 | Avg margin | +9.4 |
| +1.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.2 |
| 59.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.4 |
Florida State: last 5 games
| W38-7 | |
| W34-7 | |
| L36-50 | |
| L24-27 | |
| W34-17 |
Louisville: last 5 games
| L28-31 | |
| L27-30 | |
| W41-31 | |
| W59-13 | |
| L38-41 |
