Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium · 70° · wind 8 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Carolina–Pittsburgh) | 22–30 | 16–32 | – |
| Spread | Pittsburgh −8.1 | Pittsburgh −16.2 | Pittsburgh −3.5 |
| Total | 51.8 | 47.5 | 47.5 |
| Pittsburgh win chance | 69% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Pittsburgh −3.5 ★ Over 47.5
Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for Pittsburgh (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 4.3 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Pittsburgh −3.5
Spread: 12.7 pts better than Vegas for Pittsburgh.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Pittsburgh by 8.18%
North Carolina by 14+
22%
North Carolina by 1–13
34%
Pittsburgh by 1–13
36%
Pittsburgh by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.049 #39 | Offense EPA / play | +0.042 #45 |
| +0.006 #52 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.050 #28 |
| +4.4% #19 | Offense success rate | −2.0% #79 |
| +2.4% #73 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.5% #13 |
| +0.040 #43 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.010 #57 |
| +0.058 #45 | Passing EPA / play | +0.040 #54 |
| +0.106 #99 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.154 #7 |
| −0.057 #31 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.004 #55 |
| −2.0 #76 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.1 #31 |
| −3.6 #28 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.0 #25 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.1% #31 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.0% #44 |
| −2.2% #31 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.3% #9 |
| +0.04 #63 | Points per drive | +1.00 #18 |
| −0.11 #31 | Points per drive allowed | −0.29 #21 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.43 #6 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #39 |
| +0.40 #117 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.71 #4 |
| −1.6% #34 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.0% #86 |
| −5.8% #130 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.4% #6 |
| −0.1% #62 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #48 |
| −1.8% #95 | Havoc created | +1.6% #29 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.067 #99 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.046 #49 |
| +0.009 #64 | Passing explosiveness | +0.170 #22 |
| −0.23 #83 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.04 #60 |
| −0.183 #15 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.048 #99 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #95 | Run rate | 49% #106 |
| +1.0 #15 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.4 #91 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Carolina | Season to date | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 24.0 / 19.5 | Points for / against | 38.4 / 13.4 |
| +4.5 | Avg margin | +25.0 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.5 |
| 54.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.8 |
North Carolina: last 4 games
| L26-37 | |
| L20-28 | |
| W35-3 | |
| W15-10 |
Pittsburgh: last 5 games
| W35-33 | |
| W59-0 | |
| W27-13 | |
| W12-7 | |
| W59-14 |
