Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 82° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oregon–USC) | 33–32 | – | 41–27 |
| Spread | Oregon −1.0 | Oregon −3.5 | Oregon −14 |
| Total | 65.2 | 60.5 | 68 |
| USC win chance | 47% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ USC +3.5 Lost★ Over 60.5 Won
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for USC (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.7 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon by 1.022%
Oregon by 14+
31%
Oregon by 1–13
29%
USC by 1–13
18%
USC by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oregon | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.097 #26 | Offense EPA / play | +0.185 #9 |
| −0.107 #10 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.019 #64 |
| +4.8% #24 | Offense success rate | +10.6% #2 |
| −4.8% #15 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.1% #60 |
| +0.145 #21 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.031 #68 |
| −0.007 #58 | Passing EPA / play | +0.320 #3 |
| −0.016 #50 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.020 #69 |
| −0.210 #6 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.104 #90 |
| +13.0 #4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.7 #10 |
| −3.4 #35 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.7 #59 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.8% #30 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +8.7% #5 |
| −9.1% #2 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.2% #99 |
| +2.06 #5 | Points per drive | +1.76 #10 |
| −0.72 #19 | Points per drive allowed | −0.01 #62 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.54 #10 | Line yards per rush | +0.44 #16 |
| −0.21 #33 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #45 |
| −7.2% #3 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #55 |
| −0.3% #76 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.3% #75 |
| −4.4% #15 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −6.9% #3 |
| +0.9% #41 | Havoc created | −3.2% #125 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.069 #43 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.146 #125 |
| +0.183 #41 | Passing explosiveness | +0.104 #74 |
| −0.11 #60 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.33 #100 |
| −0.061 #42 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.133 #116 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #107 | Run rate | 56% #61 |
| −13.2 #94 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.1 #50 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oregon | Season to date | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 1-5 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 4-2 |
| 47.5 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 37.3 / 25.5 |
| +24.2 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| -3.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.2 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
Oregon: last 3 games
| W84-0 | |
| L31-39 | |
| W34-27 |
USC: last 4 games
| W42-35 | |
| W49-30 | |
| W39-0 | |
| W42-26 |
