Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 95° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Washington–USC) | 23–35 | – | 21–25 |
| Spread | USC −11.9 | USC −7.5 | USC −4 |
| Total | 58.9 | 58.5 | 46 |
| USC win chance | 77% | – | – |
Line moved from USC −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ USC −7.5 Lost★ Over 58.5 Lost
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for USC (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around USC by 11.96%
Washington by 14+
18%
Washington by 1–13
32%
USC by 1–13
45%
USC by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Washington | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.007 #68 | Offense EPA / play | +0.210 #4 |
| −0.045 #39 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.050 #78 |
| +0.9% #57 | Offense success rate | +9.7% #7 |
| −0.9% #52 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.1% #58 |
| −0.022 #92 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.079 #48 |
| −0.011 #61 | Passing EPA / play | +0.344 #2 |
| −0.057 #32 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.006 #64 |
| +0.022 #62 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.164 #109 |
| −1.8 #74 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.9 #10 |
| −1.6 #50 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.0 #55 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.5% #77 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +12.3% #3 |
| +0.2% #71 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.6% #110 |
| −0.32 #80 | Points per drive | +1.63 #8 |
| −0.19 #47 | Points per drive allowed | −0.14 #50 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 #107 | Line yards per rush | +0.42 #23 |
| −0.03 #62 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.27 #27 |
| +2.7% #122 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.5% #51 |
| +5.6% #12 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #54 |
| −2.0% #56 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −6.6% #4 |
| +1.1% #34 | Havoc created | −3.2% #124 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.053 #102 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.009 #68 |
| −0.041 #122 | Passing explosiveness | +0.165 #50 |
| −0.43 #112 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #105 |
| +0.030 #82 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.180 #126 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #125 | Run rate | 56% #69 |
| −11.5 #91 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −1.5 #22 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Washington | Season to date | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 1-5 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-2 |
| 26.6 / 18.4 | Points for / against | 37.3 / 25.5 |
| +8.2 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| -11.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.2 |
| 62.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
Washington: last 4 games
| L24-27 | |
| W48-16 | |
| W16-14 | |
| W24-10 |
USC: last 5 games
| L27-41 | |
| W42-35 | |
| W49-30 | |
| W39-0 | |
| W42-26 |
