Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 4:30 PM ET
Rice Stadium · 66° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Tulsa–Rice) | 25–22 | – |
| Spread | Tulsa −3.3 | No line |
| Total | 46.8 | n/a |
| Rice win chance | 42% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tulsa by 3.325%
Tulsa by 14+
33%
Tulsa by 1–13
28%
Rice by 1–13
14%
Rice by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tulsa | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.070 #94 | Offense EPA / play | −0.104 #110 |
| −0.027 #46 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.094 #99 |
| −5.0% #117 | Offense success rate | −3.8% #103 |
| −1.6% #44 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.5% #87 |
| +0.088 #45 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.011 #89 |
| −0.202 #118 | Passing EPA / play | −0.279 #131 |
| −0.078 #27 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.176 #129 |
| +0.063 #77 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.058 #30 |
| −5.3 #93 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.7 #116 |
| +0.8 #72 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #93 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.8% #138 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.7% #123 |
| +3.5% #100 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.0% #114 |
| −0.97 #110 | Points per drive | −0.93 #106 |
| −0.10 #56 | Points per drive allowed | +0.80 #109 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.27 #46 | Line yards per rush | −0.05 #100 |
| −0.11 #47 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #98 |
| −5.8% #18 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #100 |
| +0.6% #60 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.1% #101 |
| −0.9% #74 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #90 |
| −2.1% #102 | Havoc created | −1.5% #87 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.157 #15 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.158 #14 |
| −0.077 #126 | Passing explosiveness | +0.373 #7 |
| −0.05 #57 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.22 #29 |
| +0.019 #76 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.040 #85 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #96 | Run rate | 77% #4 |
| −9.8 #88 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.7 #35 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tulsa | Season to date | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 27.8 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 18.0 / 27.4 |
| +6.6 | Avg margin | -9.4 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.5 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Tulsa: last 5 games
| L44-45 | |
| L6-34 | |
| W42-0 | |
| W23-17 | |
| W24-10 |
Rice: last 5 games
| L14-16 | |
| L24-38 | |
| L21-28 | |
| L0-52 | |
| W31-3 |
